Ryan C. Berg, Daniel Byman, Iselin Brady, Riley McCabe, Alexander Palmer, and Henry Ziemer
Since returning to the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump has pledged to defeat the Western Hemisphere’s violent drug traffickers by any means necessary. In a March address to Congress, Trump declared, “The cartels are waging war in America, and it’s time for America to wage war on the cartels.” Over the last several months, his administration has designated 13 cartels and criminal groups, including six based in Mexico and two in Venezuela, as foreign terrorist organizations. It has also surged troops to the U.S.-Mexican border, declared several tracts of land near the border to be military zones, directed the Central Intelligence Agency to step up reconnaissance drone missions over Mexico, and ordered U.S. intelligence agencies to draw up plans to assess potential collateral damage from airstrikes in Mexico.
Washington has left behind its traditional conception of the fight against transnational criminal organizations as a matter of law enforcement with its threats of “war” and consideration of military action against the cartels. In July, Trump directed the Department of Defense to prepare such plans. Then, in September, the U.S. military struck what administration officials claimed was a vessel used by members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua to smuggle drugs, killing 11. Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the strikes on the basis that the U.S. president has the authority “under exigent circumstances to eliminate imminent threats to the United States.”
A militarized approach may be a politically attractive way for Trump to project strength. And indeed, the United States can, and should, draw on many valuable lessons from the last two decades of counterterrorism missions during the “war on terror” in its campaign against the cartels. But there is a more productive path forward than drastically shifting the rules of engagement with transnational criminal groups. In Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, Washington may have a genuine partner in containing the cartels that pose the most direct threat to the United States. More extensive border measures, increased bilateral security coordination, and more frequent (but not more lethal) maritime interdiction efforts can accomplish just as much as unilateral U.S. military interventions using drones and special operations forces would, all while limiting risk to U.S. personnel and mitigating blowback.
NEW SHERIFF IN TOWN
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