Putin Is Losing the Ukraine War: Escalation Is Coming

Reuben Johnson

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Key Points and Summary – Vladimir Putin is losing the war in Ukraine; the West must prepare for escalation. Russia’s recent summer offensive failed militarily, resulting in massive casualties for little gain.

-More critically, Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes are crippling Russia’s economy by taking a huge portion of its oil refining capacity offline, leading to domestic fuel rationing and falling revenues.

-With Putin’s back against the wall, the only way to force a negotiation is for the West to demonstrate unwavering military and financial support for Ukraine, making the war unwinnable for Moscow.

The Ukraine War Could Soon Go From Bad to Worse

WARSAW, POLAND – A combination of falling oil prices and Ukraine’s increasingly technological advantages in conducting long-range strikes on Russia’s oil industry has become the greatest threat to the continued rule of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The former KGB Lt. Col. “has his back against the wall. He is losing the economic war faster than he is gaining any military advantage in Ukraine,” writes long-time foreign policy analyst Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Friday’s edition of the London Daily Telegraph.

“Putin is losing the war, so prepare for escalation”, reads the title of his most recent assessment. The summer offensive that Moscow was sure would result in a dramatic change in the situation on the battlefield did not achieve the Kremlin’s outcome. Putin’s military suffered some 800 casualties a day and ended up with little on the ground to show for it.

Russia also failed in its primary strategic objective: to break Ukraine’s fortress belt—a chain of well-defended cities and fortifications in the Donetsk region of the Donbas. The attempt to turn the tide of the war in Moscow’s direction fell well short of expectations.

“Russians are still harassing us and hunting civilians with drones, which is a horrible practice, but they are not achieving any strategic goal,” said Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine’s former defense minister, in an address to the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London.