Khanh Vu Duc
The situation with Venezuela is entering a dangerous and uncertain phase. With the US closing Venezuelan airspace, the USS Gerald R. Ford strike group on high alert and covert operations intensifying against narcotics networks, Washington has made clear it is prepared to escalate.
This has important geostrategic implications because Beijing has already been making mischief in America’s backyard, as Asia Sentinel noted on November 28 with its foray in Brazil. Beijing has already become Venezuela’s most important economic lifeline, offering long-term oil concessions, a sweeping zero-tariff agreement, loan restructurings that cement dependency, and deep involvement in digital infrastructure and surveillance systems.
As these inroads occur, President Nicolás Maduro’s hold on power is now the most fragile it has been in years. Under mounting pressure, the Venezuelan military may soon remove him — not to restore democracy, but to save the regime. A “Maduro-lite” order, in which the man disappears but the system survives, is increasingly plausible.
This scenario raises a central question: Would President Trump accept a Venezuela without Maduro but still governed by the same authoritarian structures?
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