Sumantra Maitra and Rasmus Sinding Søndergaard
Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump posted on social media that he and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte had hammered out the “framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland.” The announcement came as a surprise, given Trump’s recent claims that he intended to “take control” of the island without close consultations with Europe. As recently as early January, Trump had threatened to seize Greenland “the hard way,” implying an openness to using military force after U.S. troops seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Then, in mid-January, he threatened massive tariffs on European countries that sought to block his takeover and embarrassed European leaders by publicly releasing their toadying text messages and posting an AI-generated image of him raising an American flag in Greenland. But at Davos, Trump appeared to take a military seizure off the table and put tariffs on pause after what he described as “satisfactory” talks with Rutte.
Little is yet known about this potential deal. But it is in the United States’ national interest to have a larger presence in Greenland—and that is in Denmark and Greenland’s interest, too. Much has been made in the press about the cooperation that already exists among all three, and over decades, there have been no better allies for the United States than Greenland and Denmark when it comes to ensuring Arctic security. Competition is rapidly ramping up in the region among major powers, however, and a broader deal is needed to secure U.S. and European interests there. Trump will also feel a need to claim that his Greenland push has been victorious, meaning that Greenland, Denmark, and other European allies have an incentive to make sure he can declare a major “win” for the United States.
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