George Friedman
The task I have dedicated my career to is understanding the things that nations must do and what they must not do. I see leaders not as free actors but as manifestations of national imperatives and interests. They become leaders because they pursue these imperatives and interests; those who do not damage the nation and, in turn, are rejected by the governed. This is true in democracies and dictatorships alike. In each, the process is different, but leadership and success are fundamental in both cases, although the ways nations deal with failed leaders in both situations are distinct.
Therefore, national imperatives and interests – the things that are necessary for a nation to do – are a guide to what nations, via their leaders, will do. Whatever success in geopolitical forecasting I have achieved is based on this concept, although in practice it is more complex than I have presented here.
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