Graham Aikin
On 19th September 2025, the US National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) released an unclassified intelligence product warning of the threat posed by Al-Qaeda. This is the first time such a threat assessment has been disseminated by the US intelligence community since the withdrawal of Western forces from Afghanistan in 2021 and highlights, along with other recent coverage detailed below, the risks posed by a resurgent al-Qaeda and other transnational jihadi terrorist groups. This piece will address Afghanistan’s role as a permissive safe haven and sanctuary for these groups, highlight some of the recent intelligence on their operational capabilities, and discuss diplomatic efforts and other initiatives that may offer some cause for optimism amongst observers of al-Qaeda’s re-emerging threat.
Background
Following the Afghan Taliban’s return to power 2021, Western intelligence services have suffered from a significant human intelligence (HUMINT) collection vacuum in Afghanistan and a limited ability to engage with in-country HUMINT sources. Operational limitations, and the fact that sources felt abandoned by the US and its coalition partners, has limited cooperation with Western ‘3-letter’ intelligence agencies such as the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS, aka MI6), who have had to rely on their regional liaison partners, such as the Jordanians, for in-country HUMINT collection.
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