Pavel K. Baev
The Arctic vortex covering Moscow and Kyiv has given new momentum to talks on the final parameters of a peace deal. It was not difficult for Russian President Vladimir Putin to consent to U.S. President Donald Trump’s request for a pause on Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure because the Russian bombing campaign had already inflicted catastrophic damage on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure (Radio Svoboda, January 30). In the middle of this “energy truce,” Ukraine suffered a major blackout caused by the breakdown of its severely degraded electricity grid (Novaya Gazeta, January 31). The so-called “energy truce” fits the pattern of Russian strikes, in which a massive combined missile and drone attack is followed by five to six days of lower intensity drone assaults (RIA Novosti, January 30). Putin’s readiness to continue the pause into the first week of February, when temperatures are predicted to hit new lows, will reveal his true intentions.
This small episode in Russia’s protracted war of attrition against Ukraine appears to be a possible step forward in the peace-making process, as it was negotiated under a new diplomatic format. This format brings together the top teams of negotiators from the United States and Ukraine with a new, and apparently lower-level, Russian delegation led by Admiral Igor Kostyikov, the Director of the Main Intelligence Directorate and deputy to Army General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the General Staff (Vedomosti, January 29; Novaya Gazeta Europe, February 1). Mainstream Russian media were cautiously optimistic about the proceedings in Abu Dhabi and skeptical about the prospect of an “energy truce” until Putin granted it his approval (Izvestiya; Nezavisimaya Gazeta, January 26). The talks are set to continue later this week, albeit without the U.S. team, which returned to Miami for a meeting with Putin’s special envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, who is keen to discuss possible joint economic projects with Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy for peace missions (RBC, January 31).
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