Michael Woodson
This forecast estimates percentage odds for a collapse or partial collapse of the Russian state and economy if Russia’s war on Ukraine continues. It covers vital global interests in context, effects of diplomacy, factors causing collapse, demographic weaknesses, seized asset use, and the unlikelihood that Russia’s feared bombardment tactics will lead to Russian conquest in Ukraine. The thesis here is that Ukrainian liberation and sovereignty will sooner prevent Russia’s collapse by prompting an efficient, internal transition of power in Moscow that conserves resources. An ongoing Russian war for conquest in Ukraine will cause a lack of human capacity to sustain the great power state and economy Russians have come to expect.
Forecast
This forecast assumes consistent European political, military, and economic aid to Ukraine. It rests on the U.S. honoring its pledge to sell European powers the arms needed to replace those they send to Ukraine. It also depends on Ukrainian forces’ ongoing, adaptive military automation and Ukrainian expats returning at a reasonable rate to bolster Ukraine’s defense and morale. Finally, this forecast depends on many promised results-oriented U.S.-led sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and strategic actions to suppress Russia’s war-making capability if Mr. Putin refuses good faith peace and multilateral security guarantees for Ukraine.
The power vacuum after a Russian collapse will degrade Russia’s capacity to defend, secure, and control its weapons, valuable resources, and energy assets. Risk of catastrophic weapons proliferation to terrorists, use of black market weapons in warfare, and related accidents would rise, threatening all nations.
Vital Interests in Ukraine’s Liberation and Leadership
Preventing Russia’s collapse requires Ukraine’s liberation from Russian forces by Fall 2026. This will be of vital strategic interest to the world, including Russia. For the United States, Xi Jinping’s forewarning of an assault on Taiwan in 2027 incentivizes a Ukrainian liberation by Fall 2026 or sooner, as the U.S. deterrent to China increases with only one great power challenge to focus on.
Putin’s Stopgap Gambit Likely Futile
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