Michael Kimmage
Russia’s intensifying incursions into European airspace are often described as acts of hybrid war. The implication is that while conventional war rages in Ukraine, with the Russian military directly targeting Ukrainian civilians, Russia’s war in Europe remains in a gray zone. It is psychological shadowboxing intended to degrade Europe’s motivation and resolve.
But this distinction is misleading. It is better to think of the war in Ukraine as a single war, with different levels of participation. If nothing else, Russia’s airspace violations show that Moscow makes no sharp distinction between Europe and Ukraine. Analysts must abandon this distinction if they hope to understand Russia’s thinking, and European states must abandon this distinction if they hope to gain lasting advantage in the war.
As the United States recedes from the conflict, scaling back direct military support for Ukraine, Europe is already stepping forward, investing heavily in the defense of Ukraine. Europe’s oft stated goal of a Ukraine integrated into European political and security structures is anathema to Russia. Yet, despite this, Europe is still trying to keep the war at arm’s length.
Going forward, Europeans should dispense with the crutch of hybrid war. When they do, they will see that Europe’s position vis-à-vis Ukraine may be more robust than Europeans might think, if more intertwined with the war than they might wish. In a long confrontation with Russia, Europe holds many of the best cards.
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