Hal Brands
China has long used coercion short of war in a bid to make Taiwan fold without a fight, while also readying a military hammer to crush that island democracy if required. Until fairly recently, that strategy was mostly backfiring, by strengthening Taiwan’s will to resist forced unification, while also strengthening its ties to the US. But today, cracks in Taiwan’s morale—and in its relationship with Washington—are starting to show.
I recently traveled to Taiwan, for conversations with government officials, political figures, and analysts, to better understand how that country is navigating a tricky, three-way dynamic with Washington and Beijing. I came away with a strong sense that Taiwan and the US are reaching a crucial inflection point — one that could produce a stronger, more durable relationship, or bring on a destructive crisis.
American actions over the past year have sown uncertainty and anxiety in a government that relies heavily on US strength. Taiwan, for its part, has been tied in knots politically just when unity and urgency are imperative.
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