Henry Ziemer
The capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, 2026, has sent shockwaves around the world. U.S. adversaries in Beijing, Moscow, and Havana are closely watching what the future may hold for their own aspirations in the Western Hemisphere. In the case of Russia, the immediate prognosis is negative. The Kremlin has lost a key outpost in the Americas, the reputation of Russian military equipment has been further tarnished, and robust U.S. sanctions enforcement against shadow tankers portends poorly for the Russian war economy. In many ways, Maduro’s capture underscores that Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine has been a tremendous folly. That conflict’s immense human and fiscal cost has hamstrung Moscow’s ability to project power further afield.
Nevertheless, Russia continues to seek an advantage despite its defeat. Most notably, Russian media outlets have seized on narratives about the erosion of international law and the resurgence of spheres of influence to legitimize the Kremlin’s own revisionist ambitions and highlight U.S. disputes over Cuba, Greenland, and Mexico. Such narratives are likely to be leveraged in Russia’s ongoing influence campaigns in the Global South.
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