Saudi Arabia vs. the UAE: The Other Gulf Crisis

Mohammed Ayoob

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While the chances of direct conflict between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are slim, the emerging rivalry is reshaping the Middle East.

With a massive American armada in the Persian Gulf and defiant rhetoric pouring out of Tehran, strategic analysts are obsessed with assessing the possibility of an American attack on Iran and mapping its potential consequences. However, another crisis in the Gulf is brewing that is likely to erupt sooner rather than later. Although this crisis may not have the apocalyptic connotations of a US-Iranian standoff, it could still destabilize the energy-rich region and have major consequences for American policy.

This impending crisis concerns the fraying relationship between two of America’s closest allies in the Gulf—Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The effects of this crisis will be felt not only in the region but also much farther afield and will affect US security concerns in the energy-rich region, its strategic interests in the broader Middle East, and oil prices across the globe.