6 February 2026

Iran: Away From The Thucydides Trap? – Analysis

Mauricio D. Aceves

The Islamic Revolution rewired society, recast identity, and turned religion into public power. For those who lived it, 1979 is not just a headline—it is the origin and the before-and-after that defined a lifetime and the future of a regional power. In September 1980—after border clashes—Saddam Hussein, president of Iraq, calculated that a war against post-revolutionary Iran would be quick and decisive. Instead, it became an opportunity for Ayatollah Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini: a conflict that hardened the state, rallied supporters, and supplied a unifying enemy across Iran’s western border. From a regional optic, the war also opened a new diplomatic theatre. Once it became clear that neither side could secure a victory, states moved to contain spillover, protect energy routes, and prevent a wider conflict.

That conflict created a paradox: it obturated identities and security doctrines, yet it also forced the region to practice crisis management—back channels, coalition-signalling, and ceasefire-engineering. Even when mediation did not succeed, diplomacy served as a tool of containment, shaping alignments and laying early templates for the region’s politics. If 1979 was the turning point, 1980 was the point of no return.[1] The Iran-Iraq War broke regional dynamics and cemented a harsher reality in which security trumped politics. In 1987, President Ronald Reagan stated, “This conflict threatens America’s strategic interests, as well as the stability and security of all our friends in the region.” [2]

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