Jianli Yang
China’s chip strategy is focused on self-reliance. The United States should reconsider its decision to allow Nvidia to export H200 chips and instead enact a total export ban.
US President Donald Trump’s recent announcement to permit Nvidia to export its high-end H200 chips to China has triggered another round of heated debate on its implications for national security as well as overall strategies of competing and winning the artificial intelligence (AI) race with China. The controversy is familiar and almost ritualistic. Supporters warn that restricting exports undermines American firms and accelerates China’s domestic substitution; critics argue that any relaxation strengthens China’s AI capabilities and erodes US technological leadership.
Yet what is striking about the debate is not its intensity, but its dated premises. The core assumption on both sides—that US export controls can meaningfully shape China’s strategic trajectory—has become increasingly detached from reality. The H200 decision matters at the margin, but the larger direction of China’s policy no longer hinges on whether Washington tightens or loosens restrictions. The debate persists, but the strategic ground beneath it has shifted.
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