Craig Koerner
The long-awaited Gaza cease-fire represents great hope but has left Hamas armed, rejecting disarmament, and engaging in a low-intensity civil war which it appears to be winning. If Hamas does not agree to disarm and exit Gazan politics – something Hamas has rejected repeatedly – Israel may renew its war to eliminate Hamas. To date, Israel’s military campaign has failed to destroy Hamas; they have simply regrouped in the power vacuum left by Israel’s clearing operations. Counterinsurgency – when conducted as interminable search-and-destroy without creating any governing body in cleared areas – is guaranteed to fail; Hamas is living proof of this.
If the war resumes, the formula for eliminating Hamas and bringing peace to Gaza is found in point 17 of the 20-Point Peace Plan for Gaza: “In the event Hamas delays or rejects this proposal, the above [i.e., the first 16 points], including the scaled-up aid operation, will proceed in the terror-free areas handed over from the IDF to the ISF.” [Emphasis added.] By proposing that the International Stabilization Force (ISF) secure the cleared areas during conflict, the diplomats have reinvented the “Oil Spot” or “Ink Spot” Strategy of counterinsurgency. Given Hamas’ unpopularity both before the war and today, the inferior miliary strength of the competing factions, and above all the ISF task of governing unarmed or disarmed people in cleared areas, this strategy is likely to succeed. Under the protection of the ISF, the desired indigenous, technocratic, non-Hamas government can flourish in Gaza before Hamas disarms—voluntarily or otherwise. This is counterinsurgency.
No comments:
Post a Comment