Maksym Skrypchenko
In 2022, a new gadget could survive a season before the enemy adapted. By mid-2025, that cycle shrank to a period of weeks. The side that innovates fastest and produces at the lowest cost holds the advantage. Forces that wait years for perfect systems find them outdated when they finally arrive on the frontlines.
Ukraine now faces a dual task. It must produce affordable weapons at scale today and build a lasting qualitative edge for the years ahead. Both are essential for survival and for long-term deterrence.
Drones dominate the front. Swarms of reconnaissance and strike systems have turned large parts of the line into kill zones where movement is perilous. Fiber-optic-guided drones, largely immune to jamming, reach far behind enemy lines. Analysts estimate that small drones account for most of Russia’s visually confirmed equipment losses. Traditional air defenses, built around expensive missiles, struggle to keep pace with this pace and volume. The cost curve favors whoever can build, adapt, and replace quickly.
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