David A. Merkel
The political and economic formula that once ensured Southeast Asia’s stability and prosperity between the United States and China is breaking down.
For more than two decades, the nations of Southeast Asia have perfected the art of “hedging.” The 11 nations of the region cultivated China as an indispensable economic partner while relying on the United States as their ultimate security guarantor. This balancing act has allowed them to extract dividends from both relationships: Chinese trade and investment for prosperity and the American military presence for stability.
But as US-China competition hardens into a strategic rivalry, that equilibrium is fraying. The space between Washington and Beijing, once wide enough for ASEAN states to maneuver, is narrowing fast. Hedging bets is getting harder, and the consequences of leaning too far to either side are growing sharper.
Beijing’s maritime assertiveness and its use of economic leverage are forcing governments to clarify where they stand. At the same time, Washington presses partners to deepen security cooperation under its Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy.
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