Gonzalo Escribano
The US intervention in Venezuela and the capture of its President, Nicolás Maduro, leaves an uncertain political landscape that will largely determine the country’s oil future and, with it, its economic and social prospects. President Trump’s rejection of a rapid transition to an opposition government based on the results of the 2024 presidential elections and his insistence on controlling the country’s oil have raised many questions about Venezuela’s political future and the possible mechanisms for controlling its resources. This uncertainty is projected onto an oil sector ravaged by nearly three decades of energy nationalism, mismanagement and corruption under Chavismo, aggravated by US sanctions over the past decade.
This paper first outlines the evolution of Venezuela’s oil production, the energy nationalism policies adopted by Chavismo and the US sanctions and oil blockade. Secondly, it explores three basic scenarios for Venezuelan oil: a democratically legitimate government open to all foreign investors; an exclusive realignment with the US that erodes the country’s energy sovereignty; and a power vacuum that prevents oil sector reform and its credibility in the medium and long term. Finally, it outlines the main international repercussions of these scenarios on the oil market, some of Chavismo’s traditional allies and several US partners, including the EU.
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