Brandon J. Weichert
Is China Collapsing? Not Exactly
Most assessments claim that the surplus was derived from emerging markets—the Global South—where Beijing has spent an inordinate amount of time cultivating relationships and expanding its presence via trade and geoeconomic policies. Yes, Chinese leaders spent years deftly cultivating their tight relations with the Global South. It helped them prepare for when they expected President Donald Trump to initiate the next phase of his onerous trade war. Remember, in Trump’s first nonconsecutive term, Beijing was caught off-guard by Trump’s brute force approach to trade warfare.
That was then. China spent the intervening years making its system less susceptible to the kind of aggressive trade policies that future American administrations might enact—realizing that Trump’s hawkishness during his first term was most likely going to be a trend that future American leaders followed, rather than an anomaly. So, when Trump returned to office and initiated his trade war against China, Beijing simply prioritized the Global South. To be clear, the notion of utilizing tariffs and other protectionist barriers to restore America’s industrial infrastructure and make China play fairer in the global trade game were justified, and perhaps necessary, moves by the Trump administration. Yet the way in which Trump has haphazardly enacted these policies, and the failure to account the kind of countermoves the Chinese would make in retaliation, have led America to disaster.
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