Andrew C. Kuchins, and Chris Monday
As 2026 begins, the Trump administration has jolted the global order yet again with Operation Absolute Resolve, the lightning-fast capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. While reactions in the West have ranged from outright condemnation to tepid approval, the most telling reaction might be Moscow’s. Rather than the expected fire-and-fury rhetoric, Russian state media remained strikingly circumspect, which has fueled yet more rumors of a “New Yalta” establishing spheres of influence from Caracas to Kyiv.
How much truth is there behind the speculation? In 2019, Fiona Hill, a former National Security Council (NSC) director for Russia, testified before Congress that Russian officials had floated a “very strange swap arrangement between Venezuela and Ukraine.” As the moderate Russian voice Sergey Brilyov now leads coverage of the Venezuela strikes on state media, observers can only wonder if the rapport established during the Trump-Putin Alaska summit in 2025 has finally yielded a backstage deal.
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