War in the Arctic?

James Gray
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It used to be thought that somehow or another the Arctic was unlike anywhere else. It was a haven for scientific research, the eight Arctic Nations (including both Russia and the United States) peacefully cooperating. All of that has been destroyed in recent years by the fast retreating Arctic ice, the opening up of all sorts of commercial activities as a result; by the Russian invasion of Ukraine; and by increasing Chinese interest in the ‘Polar Silk Road’.

The further opening up of the Northern Sea Route, allowing commercial vessels to transit the shortest route from the Pacific to the Atlantic, looks likely to be a reality within a decade. Half of the world’s oil and gas reserves are under the Arctic; as are a good percentage of those rare earths and critical minerals which are integral parts of every computer, every mobile phone, every battery-operated car.