Ye Myo Hein
Over the past year, the most consequential shift in Myanmar’s conflict has been China’s direct intervention. After avoiding overt intervention during the first three years following the 2021 coup, Beijing recalibrated its approach in late 2024, stepping in to prop up the faltering regime under the pretext of stability. This move has altered the conflict’s trajectory, pulling it back from what appeared to be a decisive phase into a prolonged and grinding war.
Alongside Beijing’s expanding role, a dangerous fatalism has taken hold. Many internationals now assume that Myanmar’s political future will ultimately be determined by Beijing; that the resistance will fail because China will not permit its victory; and that domestic actors therefore possess little meaningful agency over outcomes. This is a profound misreading of Myanmar. It underestimates the political aspirations of the population, the depth of determination that has sustained the Spring Revolution over five years, and the movement’s ability to dictate the course of the country’s future.
No comments:
Post a Comment