2 February 2026

US critical-minerals diplomacy: from America-First deals to Pax Silica

Dr Maria Shagina

President Donald Trump has turned the United States’ critical-minerals policy into a three-pronged, state-capitalist strategy: faster permitting at home, equity-style deals and price floors for strategic producers, and a new wave of bilateral pacts backed by public finance. Washington is now trying to weld these tools into a ‘coalition of capabilities’ – but the model’s success will hinge on implementation.

Since January 2025, US President Donald Trump has adopted a forceful, state-capitalist approach – greater government interventions in corporate decision-making: accelerating permit approvals, brokering private capital and deploying public financial institutions as strategic instruments. China’s export controls and licensing restrictions, issued in April 2025, furthered the shift towards state capitalism, as American public investment in critical-mineral supply chains surged.

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