Wolf-Christian Paes
This report examines different expressions of maritime insecurity in the Horn of Africa region and considers the influence of external actors and key non-state armed groups over this domain. After an overview of some of the key land-based political and security challenges confronting Somalia, the report analyses the resurgence of piracy in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean since late 2023, the smuggling of munitions, components and dual-use items between the Horn of Africa and Yemen, and the evolving competition over ports and foreign military bases across the region.
Somalia has been the site of a protracted security and governance crisis since the shattering of its state institutions in the final years of the Cold War. This crisis has reverberated within the Horn of Africa, but also across the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean. The shards of the Somali state have been gradually pieced back together, with a fragmented (but internationally supported) federal state nominally in charge of southern and northeastern areas of the country, and a breakaway Republic of Somaliland more effectively projecting power over Somalia’s northwest, while seeking international recognition. These successor states have been locked into an uneasy coexistence, as the federal government in Mogadishu – with the assistance of regional and international militaries – attempts to stave off jihadist insurgents, notably al-Shabaab.
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