12 March 2026

Text Without Context is Pretext – Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow?

Dawn Hersey, Wendy MacKenzie Pease

“Ukraine today; Taiwan tomorrow”. “Taiwan 2027”. We hear the parallels and implications of a Russian-esque invasion of Taiwan repeatedly, and the textual statement makes sense. But how legitimate is the parallel when context is provided? There is some level of justification to highlight an advertised interest in the Peoples’ Republic of China (PRC) acquiring the island of Taiwan, also called Formosa from Portuguese, more formally known as the Republic of China (ROC). Both Ukraine and Taiwan experienced social revolutions in 2014. Both Ukraine and Taiwan have strong ties to larger states in governance and culture. And both states, while they do have populations closely tied to the larger state, have large swaths of the population with unique cultural heritages and social values.

Without nuanced context, our perception of the parallel between Russia invading Ukraine and China invading Taiwan is merely pretext. This overview is a summary of key points of a complex and much broader understanding: there are many details omitted or bypassed for space and time. History and identity have carried into both situations’ narratives. Just listen to the current Russian president pontificate about how his interpretation of history justifies irridentism to understand that understanding context is imperative to understanding that contest.

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