Alexander Klimburg
Europe has entered a gray zone between peace and war. Russian hybrid warfare campaigns dominate the environment, leveraging cyber and information mechanisms to erode European cohesion and capacity without triggering a conventional military response. The implicit EU digital deterrence strategy—countering cyberattacks and information warfare through norms, entanglement, and resilience—does not sufficiently inhibit Russian hybrid campaigns. Moreover, the ability of the NATO to deter aggression by promising overwhelming retaliation largely based on U.S. capabilities aligns poorly with the scope of the Russian threat.
Instead, Europe must adopt a posture of compellence and independent deterrence, embracing cyber and information capabilities as a central instrument of statecraft. Neither the European Union nor NATO is structurally equipped to deliver the two necessary pillars of European cyber deterrence: (1) strategic operations in wartime and (2) gray zone compellence to counter hybrid warfare activities. Additionally, Europe remains highly dependent on U.S. cyber capabilities, creating strategic risk as U.S. involvement in European security declines.
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