Michael Carpenter
The implications of the war against Iran for transatlantic relations will become clearer as the United States–Israel campaign progresses. The European response to the US–Israel strikes on Iran has so far been cautious. Most European governments have distanced themselves from the operation, calling for restraint and a return to diplomacy. European leaders have mostly stressed the critical importance of resolving the nuclear issue and have made clear their preference for a return to negotiations. Many have also explicitly signalled to domestic audiences that this is not their conflict. A small number of European governments have welcomed Iranian Supreme Leader Sayyid Ali Khamenei’s removal, though Canada’s prime minister, Mark Carney, is the only transatlantic leader to have publicly supported a governance transition in Tehran.
For many Europeans the Iran war is further evidence of the fundamental unpredictability of the administration of US President Donald Trump (even if war seemed increasingly likely in recent weeks). Trump had pledged during his 2024 presidential campaign to avoid Middle Eastern wars, and both he and Vice President JD Vance have sharply criticised previous US leaders for the mere possibility of contemplating a conflict with Iran. The administration’s National Security Strategy also explicitly de-prioritised the Middle East in favour of renewed attention to the Western Hemisphere. Yet despite being released only a few months ago, it too is proving a poor guide to the administration’s next moves. Europeans are therefore concluding they must look beyond Washington's rhetoric and focus on actions.
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