Don’t Repeat Afghanistan in Iran

RealClearDefense  |  Stephen D. Cook

The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, perceived as a self-inflicted wound and a signal of irresolution, preceded Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This perceived American retreat also emboldened Iran, which deepened ties with Hamas, contributing to the October 7th attack on Israel. Subsequently, Israel conducted campaigns against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon (2024), followed by direct strikes on Iranian targets.

Information as the New High Ground: The Cognitive Fight in the Indo-Pacific

Small Wars Journal | Lynnette Hui Xian Ng, by Ben Blane

Conflict today is increasingly shaped by the cognitive terrain, where information operations via social media are foundational for effective regional deterrence. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) employs an “all-domain dominance” strategy, using information campaigns against Japan that mirror Russia's pre-2022 invasion tactics in the Baltic States. China weaponizes history and territorial disputes, such as

China’s One-Sided Theory of Peace

The National Interest  |  Larry M. Wortzel

Chinese President Xi Jinping communicated to President Donald Trump in Beijing that the United States must change its behavior to ensure US-China relations stability and avoid the “Thucydides Trap.” Xi asserted that the US needs to accommodate China's growing technical, economic, and military power, rather than China altering its own policies.

Is China’s Confidence Justified?

Project Syndicate  |  Jayati Ghosh

China's political and intellectual elites increasingly view the nation's economic transformation as validation of state-led development's superiority over liberal capitalism. However, deep-seated structural issues, specifically economic overcapacity and persistent inequality, suggest that this prevailing triumphalism may be premature. During US President Donald Trump's visit to China, the official narratives surrounding his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping exhibited immediate and notable discrepancies, highlighting differing interpretations of the discussions.

The Middle Power Delusion: Not Choosing Is Not an Option

Foreign Affairs | Michael Beckley

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos that middle powers must stop negotiating alone, as they are becoming more exposed, not more powerful. The conditions that allowed middle powers to flourish, such as U.S. hegemony, an expanding global economy, and the ability to trade with rival powers without choosing, are eroding.

Decoding China’s 15th Five-Year Plan

Foreign Policy Research Institute | Kyle Marcrum

China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) reflects a significantly more pessimistic assessment of the global environment, perceiving it as increasingly uncertain and unstable, yet simultaneously presenting opportunities for Beijing. Analysis of the March 2026 Outline, compared to the October 2025 Recommendations, reveals three critical shifts in Chinese Communist Party (CCP) thinking: a soured international outlook, a

The G-2 Reality: America and China Cannot Dominate or Exclude Each Other

Foreign Affairs | Zheng Wang

President Donald Trump’s mid-May visit to China signaled Washington and Beijing's acceptance of a "G-2 reality," where neither can dominate nor exclude the other despite years of trade wars, technology controls, and military competition. This G-2 world mandates competitive coexistence, enabling the United States and China to restrict and disrupt each other without achieving outright triumph or sustained conflict.

After the Iran Strikes, the West Must Confront the Third Option

Real Clear Defense  |  Wesley Martin

The U.S. military has dealt irreparable damage to Iran’s theocratic dictatorship since late February, yet the ultimate solution to the Iran conflict must involve the removal of the mullahs’ regime without necessarily deploying American troops. An organized opposition movement, centered on the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) and the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), offers a “third option” for democratic change.

Trump’s Nuclear Review

Real Clear Defense  |  Madelyn Creedon, Eric S. Edelman, Franklin C. Miller, Vipin Narang, Keith B. Payne

The Trump Pentagon is conducting a "mini review" of U.S. nuclear strategy, which must define deterrence and assurance for an increasingly complex nuclear age. This review should avoid "mirror-imaging," recognizing that aggressive, autocratic opponents like Russia and China prioritize regime survival, military capabilities, and their defense industrial base.

Four Myths About MAGA

Real Clear Defense  |  Christopher J. Little

The 2025 National Security Strategy, 2026 National Defense Strategy, and 2026 U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy define "MAGA" as a codified doctrine, refuting common mischaracterizations. These documents demonstrate that MAGA is not isolationist, citing eight mediated regional conflicts, including between Pakistan and India, Israel and Iran, and ending the Gaza war, alongside operations like Midnight Hammer against Iran's nuclear program and Absolute Resolve against Nicolás Maduro.

Explainer: What's involved in talks to end the Iran war?

RealClearWorld

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Tuesday that negotiating a deal with Iran could "take a few days," dampening hopes for an imminent end to the conflict after U.S. defensive strikes in southern Iran. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson confirmed progress on a potential 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU), but not an immediate deal.

Surge in Nuclear Brinksmanship Cannot Regain Russia’s Position of Strength

The Jamestown Foundation  |  Pavel K. Baev

Russia's accumulating setbacks in economic, military, and foreign policies are shifting the war's trajectory towards potential defeat, prompting President Vladimir Putin to intensify nuclear brinkmanship as his primary instrument for coercion. Recent Russian nuclear demonstrations include the May 12 test launch of the Sarmat (RS-28) intercontinental missile, tactical nuclear exercises in Belarus aimed at Baltic states, and a strategic forces exercise involving Yars and Sineva missiles.

This is how to defeat Vladimir Putin

European Council on Foreign Relations  |  Timothy Garton Ash

Vladimir Putin's external ambitions, aiming to subjugate Ukraine, restore the Russian empire, undermine NATO and the EU, and re-establish a Russian sphere of influence, necessitate a comprehensive strategy from democracies. This strategy involves maintaining unwavering support for Ukraine, ensuring it becomes a prosperous, secure, and democratic EU member state, even after a potential ceasefire.

Concerned About Army’s Loyalty, Putin Boosts Role of Political Commissars

The Jamestown Foundation  |  Paul Goble

Russian President Vladimir Putin has significantly expanded the number and role of political commissars, known as _politruks_, within the military since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This revival of a Soviet-era practice, which began in 2018, indicates Putin's growing concern about the loyalty of his military commanders and troops, aiming to prevent the army from becoming a political threat.

The Wars in Ukraine and Iran Are More Alike Than You May Think

The New York Times  |  Lara Jakes

The wars in Ukraine and Iran, despite initial differences in combat style—trench warfare versus air and sea attacks—exhibit striking similarities, particularly in the inability of more powerful militaries, Russia and the United States/Israel, to achieve quick victories against their adversaries. President Vladimir V. Putin expected a swift win in his “special military operation” in Ukraine,

More Iran war? There goes the neighborhood, and global economy.

Responsible Statecraft  |  Karthik Sankaran

The Iran war has caused a significant global economic impact, marked by a spike in oil prices, with Brent crude rising from $60 to $91 per barrel. Global oil deliveries from the Persian Gulf experienced a cumulative shortfall of roughly one billion barrels, absorbed by reduced demand, increased non-Gulf production, and a 250 million barrel drop in global oil inventories, which the IEA warns is unsustainable.

How Saudi Arabia's spending spree reached the end of the line

BBC  |  Sebastian Usher

Saudi Arabia's ambitious Vision 2030, initiated a decade ago by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) with nearly $1 trillion from its sovereign wealth fund (PIF), aimed to diversify the economy away from oil through monumental projects. Four years from its target, a significant retrenchment is evident, driven by financial imperatives including pre-war oil price drops and insufficient foreign investment.

Global Terrorism Threat Assessment 2026

Center for Strategic and International Studies  |  Alexander Palmer, Daniel Byman, Alexander Margolis, Riley McCabe, and Erin Oppel

The United States faces an increasingly complex and unpredictable terrorism landscape, a significant shift from the post-9/11 era or the peak of the Islamic State’s territorial caliphate. This evolving environment is notably characterized by the absence of a single, clear paramount threat, indicating a more diffuse and multifaceted challenge to national security.

How AI Warfare Is Redefining Human Oversight on the Battlefield

The National Interest  |  Jakub Kubś

In the first 24 hours of a US operation against Iran this winter, an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven targeting system, Epic Fury, identified approximately a thousand objects for potential strikes in seconds, a task impossible for a human analyst in a day. Since late February, the United States has launched over 11,000 strikes against Iran, many cued by Palantir’s Maven Smart System.

Collaboration without over-reliance: the role of industry in making military AI “lawful by design”

ICRC Blogs  |  Laura Bruun, Netta Goussac

The policy debate on artificial intelligence (AI) in the military domain increasingly emphasizes integrating international humanitarian law (IHL) into military AI system design, aiming for "lawful by design" capabilities. However, Laura Bruun and Netta Goussac from SIPRI argue that this focus risks states over-relying on industry for IHL compliance.

All non-drone militaries are now obsolete

Asia Times  |  Noah Smith

The Ukraine war has decisively demonstrated that all non-drone militaries are now obsolete, with drones inflicting casualty rates as high as 5 to 1 on the Russian army, causing an estimated 96% of casualties. Ukraine escalated its FPV drone usage from thousands to approximately 60,000 daily, proving drones are the supreme weapon due to their

Smaller, easier, smarter: what special operators want from AI

Defense One  |  Patrick Tucker

United States Special Operations Forces (SOF) are articulating clear requirements for Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems, prioritizing solutions that are 'smaller, easier, and smarter' for integration into their demanding operational environments. The core demand centers on AI agents that are compact enough to fit within a soldier's pack, underscoring a critical need for miniaturized, low-power, and edge-processing capabilities.

VIEWPOINT: Maximizing Airpower: Flexibility in Weapons and Platforms

National Defense Magazine  |  Megan Hainline

The Joint Force is not maximizing airpower combat options due to insufficient weapons interoperability, stemming from "systematic tribalism" and flawed incentive structures. Policymakers expect global precision strikes, yet the U.S. military's current approach hinders flexibility. The Pentagon's existing acquisition reforms, like portfolio executives and modular open system approaches, are insufficient.

Peraton IRIS™: AI-Powered Decision-Support Platform Redefining Operations in the Information Environment

Peraton

Peraton announced the commercial availability of Peraton IRIS™, an AI-enabled decision-support platform designed for analysts, mission planners, and commanders operating in the complex information environment. This platform, at Technology Readiness Level 9 and approved for CUI use at IL5, with IL6 approval by July 2026, has been operational at U.S.

This Is How the Iran War Ends

The Free Press  |  Michael Doran

President Donald Trump has announced that an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is "largely negotiated," facing immediate criticism from both Republican and Democratic factions. Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican ally, expressed concern that such a deal could be perceived as an "ignominious retreat," making Iran a dominant force and creating a "nightmare for Israel."

India, China, and Claims over Tawang: Views From a Field Visit to Arunachal Pradesh

The Diplomat  |  Shanthie Mariet D’Souza

India is actively transforming Arunachal Pradesh, a geopolitically sensitive frontier, into an integral part of the Indian nation to counter China's irredentist claims over the territory, particularly Tawang. New Delhi's strategy aims to solidify its sovereignty and presence in the region, which Beijing considers "South Tibet." This initiative involves significant efforts to integrate the border

Colour Revolutions: How the US Deep State is Reshaping South Asia to Contain China and Isolate India

Niti Shastra  |  Navroop Singh, Himja Parekh

The United States has systematically reshaped the geopolitical landscape of South Asia through engineered political upheavals in sovereign nations like Bangladesh and Nepal, employing coordinated tactics such as youth mobilization, digital agitation, foreign-funded NGOs, and anti-corruption narratives. In Bangladesh, the August 2024 ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, framed as a student uprising, installed Muhammad Yunus, advancing US access to strategic Bay of Bengal assets and consolidating Islamist forces.

Pakistan's Hajj Operators Are Robbing Pilgrims. The Ministry Calls It Under One Percent.

Brief.pk

The Pakistan Hajj Mission, operating in Makkah, recently recovered 5.5 million rupees from private tour operators, who were found to have overcharged pilgrims during their Hajj pilgrimage. This direct intervention resulted in formal notices being issued to thirty-five distinct companies implicated in these financial malpractices. The article explicitly states that Pakistan's Hajj operators are "robbing" pilgrims through these overcharging schemes.

Bangladesh: Terrorist Nexus In Rohingya Camps – Analysis

Eurasia Review  |  Shivangi Sharma

Bangladesh's Rohingya refugee camps are experiencing escalating violence and fragmentation among armed groups, including ARA/Nabi Hossain Bahini, ARSA, ARO, Saddam Bahini, and Zakir Bahini, competing for territorial dominance and control over camp governance. In May 2026 alone, multiple killings occurred, such as Hasan Ahmed, Mohammad Kamal Prakash Noor, and ARO 'commander' Kefayet Ullah Halim.

Why Pakistan's biggest military deployment in Gulf in years is a geopolitical alarm

India Today  |  Pradip R. Sagar

Pakistan's reported deployment of a large military contingent, including F-16 and JF-17 Thunder aircraft and elements of the 25 Mechanized Division, in Saudi Arabia has raised concerns over Islamabad's strategic posture amidst West Asia tensions and geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran. Regional observers view this as a significant commitment, with the F-16s likely bearing the heavier operational burden while JF-17s perform defensive roles due to China's engagement with Iran.

Mediation And The Geopolitical Positioning Of Belarus And Pakistan In The Multipolar Order – Analysis

Eurasia Review

The contemporary international order is undergoing a profound structural reconfiguration from unipolar dominance to a complex, networked multipolar system, where mediation diplomacy is increasingly vital for global governance. Its effectiveness stems from the ability to foster dialogue and build trust through perceived neutrality, institutional predictability, and sovereign autonomy, rather than military or economic superiority.

Did Pakistan Actually Open Its Transit Corridors to Iran?

FrameTheGlobeNews

Pakistan launched the Pakistan-Iran Transit Corridor last month at a ceremony in Karachi, where Director General of Transit Trade Customs Sanaullah Abro and Director Transit Muhammad Rashid flagged off the initiative. Islamabad had announced six transit routes, prompting shipping lines to reroute thousands of containers to Pakistani ports like Karachi and Gwadar.

The Iran Deal Nobody Agrees On

Frame the Globe News

Pakistan's military personnel were targeted on May 24 in Quetta, Balochistan, when a bomb detonated on a shuttle train, killing at least 24 people, including army servicemen, and wounding over 50. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), a US-designated foreign terrorist organization based in Afghanistan, claimed responsibility, consistent with its objective of Baloch independence and targeting Pakistani state integration projects in the resource-rich province carrying CPEC.

A ‘New Beginning’ for Xi’s Assimilationist Agenda

Jamestown | Arran Hope

China's _Ethnic Unity and Progress Promotion Law_, passed by the National People’s Congress in March and effective July 1, establishes statutory obligations for Beijing's comprehensive assimilationist agenda. This law, building on over 20 provincial regulations, transforms ethnic unity work from "policy guidance" to "legal norms" and a "hard constraint," compelling officials to "forge a common Chinese national consciousness."

Iran Previews China’s Cyber Playbook

National Interest  |  Andrew Harding, Josiah Guajardo

Iran's "Operation Epic Fury" cyberattacks offer a critical preview for Taiwan regarding potential Chinese threats. China, possessing a highly capable cyber arsenal, considers cyberspace a "critical domain" and "the core center for winning wars," actively launching 2.63 million daily cyberattacks against Taiwanese critical infrastructure in 2025. Iranian-tied groups conducted 5,800 attacks against American and Israeli companies, manipulating internet-facing programmable logic controllers to cause operational disruptions and financial losses.

Foreign Policy Analysis and Trump: Risk, Iran, and the Limits of Decision-Making Models

E-International Relations  |  Kristian Alexander

Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iran, a consequential use of force, is best understood as a hybrid case requiring multiple Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) frameworks. While the rational actor model initially explains the strike as a calculated effort to restore deterrence and reassert credibility against Iran's advancing missile and nuclear capabilities and resilience, this framework encounters limitations.

When Our Word is No Longer Good

The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity  |  Ron Paul

The US Administration's repeated pattern of signaling an "almost completed" agreement with Iran, only to follow with surprise attacks in June and February 28th, has eroded international trust. This "governmental nihilism," characterized by deception and a belief in no objective truth, signals moral and ethical bankruptcy, leading other nations to view negotiation with the United States as futile.

War Against Technology: An Analysis of Recent Developments in Anti-Technology Violence

International Centre for Counter-Terrorism | Mauro Lubrano

Anti-technology extremism has consolidated as an emerging driver of terrorism and political violence, manifesting in widespread sabotage and attacks across Europe and North America. These incidents, though fragmented and geographically dispersed, converge on similar targets, primarily executed by lone actors and decentralised cells.

The Middle Power Delusion

Foreign Affairs  |  Michael Beckley

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos that states caught between Washington and Beijing must stop negotiating alone, emphasizing that "If we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu." This sentiment reflects a renewed focus on middle powers like India, Brazil, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Australia, Canada,

A Million Displaced.

FrameTheGlobeNews 

Israel's 'Operation Arrows of Fire' has led to the displacement of families in central Beirut, specifically those on the Ramlet al-Baida corniche. These families are now living in tents, constructed from canvas and aluminum poles on a seafront walkway, having lost their homes and possessions due to actions by the Israeli air force.

The world urgently needs a US-Iran deal now

Al Jazeera  |  Ilan Kapoor

The world economy faces deepening energy, food, and cost-of-living crises, primarily centered on the Strait of Hormuz, necessitating an urgent US-Iran deal. Recent reports indicate Washington and Tehran are discussing a broader arrangement, including a 60-day truce, reopening shipping lanes, sanctions relief, and renewed nuclear talks. Approximately a fifth of global oil and a substantial

From Protecting Chokepoints To Breaking Their Grip: Why The ASTRA Corridor Debate Matters – Analysis

Eurasia Review  |  Mohamed A. Qubaty

The debate surrounding the proposed ASTRA Corridor through Yemen's Hawf region signifies a strategic shift from merely protecting maritime chokepoints like Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb to reducing global dependence on them. Recent regional confrontations highlight the vulnerability of concentrated energy flows and trade networks, prompting a re-evaluation of energy-security strategy towards diversification and structural resilience rather than perfect invulnerability.

The "Active Defense Doctrine": The illusion of firewalls

Calcalistech  |  Alon Aharon

In 2026, the traditional information security paradigm of building high walls around organizational assets has collapsed, creating an absurd asymmetry favoring attackers. The solution is an "active defense doctrine," integrating offensive cyber capabilities for adversary intelligence, reverse engineering attacker intentions, and pre-server disruption. This proactive approach employs advanced deception techniques, like concealing real information within

How AI Warfare Is Redefining Human Oversight on the Battlefield

National Interest  |  Jakub Kubś

The US operation against Iran this winter deployed an AI-driven targeting system, Epic Fury, identifying approximately a thousand strike objects in 24 hours, a speed unachievable by human analysts, thus challenging "human-in-the-loop" control as systems like Palantir’s Maven create "black-box" kill chains operators don't fully understand. The Secretary of Defense's January 2026 strategy accepts "imperfect alignment" risks, leading to errors like a children's hospital strike due to outdated data and insufficient verification.

Has Anyone ‘Won’ the Iran War?

National Interest  |  Khalid Al-Jaber

The US-Israel-Iran war has reshaped the Middle East's balance of power, yet produced no clear strategic resolution for any involved actor, leading to a fragile equilibrium. The United States, having spent an estimated $25-50 billion, prevented a broader conflict and degraded Iran's military, but exposed its eroding capacity for decisive victory.

The Bill Comes Due

Frame The Globe News

On the morning of February 28, US and Israeli aircraft executed a coordinated military operation, striking Tehran. The explicit objective of this joint aerial assault was regime decapitation, directly targeting the leadership of the Islamic Republic. Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, was specifically identified as a key figure in the context of this operation, indicating a direct focus on the highest echelons of the Iranian government.

Competition Warfare: Strategic Terrain Is No Longer Geographic

Irregular Warfare Center  |  LTC George J. Fust

Modern strategic competition has shifted from seizing geographic ground to manipulating critical systems states rely on, fundamentally redefining strategic terrain. This transformation means pressure is now applied through infrastructure, institutions, markets, and information systems, rather than traditional military advances.

Six Key Lessons from Ukraine’s Drone War

Irregular Warfare Center  |  Nolan Peterson

Ukraine's drone warfare has provided six key lessons, demonstrating how unmanned systems are democratizing long-range precision strike capabilities and bridging conventional and unconventional warfare. These tactics and technologies, refined since Russia's 2014 invasion, have already appeared in conflicts globally, including Myanmar, Colombia, Mexico, Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, and Iraq, with China actively studying Russia's experiences for its own doctrines.

What Is ‘Electronic Warfare,’ Anyway?

National Interest  |  Harrison Kass

Electronic warfare (EW) has become increasingly vital in modern conflict, evolving from rudimentary World War II "chaff" to today's sophisticated digital attack platforms that aim to control the electromagnetic spectrum. This mode of fighting disrupts enemy radars, communications, missile guidance, and networks, with early dedicated aircraft like the EB-66 Destroyer giving way to more advanced systems.

Strategy for a new nuclear age

Atlantic Council  |  Michael Albertson, Paul Amato, Henry "Trey" Obering, Ankit Panda, Kingston Reif, Amy Woolf

Nuclear weapons have re-emerged as central to great power politics, ending the post-Cold War era's diminished focus. Russia has threatened nuclear use in Ukraine and tested new delivery systems. China rapidly expanded its nuclear arsenal, diversified delivery systems, and potentially conducted a low-yield nuclear test in June 2020.

Rupees, Roubles & Refining: The Geopolitics of India’s Oil Sourcing

Nitishastra | Navroop Singh and Himja Parekh

India, the world’s third-largest energy consumer, significantly diversified its crude oil imports between April and May 2026, increasing overall imports by 8.5% to 4,920,000 bpd. This strategic shift, driven by geopolitical tensions and favorable pricing, saw Russian crude imports surge by 413,000 bpd to 1.98 million bpd, while Saudi Arabian supplies plummeted by 330,000 bpd to 340,000 bpd due to cost-prohibitive Official Selling Prices.

INDIAN NAVY MARITIME SECURITY STRATEGY-2026 RELEASED BY CNS, ADMIRAL DINESH K TRIPATHI, DURING COMMANDERS' CONFERENCE IN NEW DELHI

Indian Navy

The Indian Navy Maritime Security Strategy-2026 was released by CNS, Admiral Dinesh K Tripathi, during the Commanders' Conference in New Delhi, outlining the Navy's action plan for the coming decade. This crucial document aims to ensure secure seas and safeguard India's national maritime interests within the evolving security environment, building upon the foundational Defence Forces Vision 2047 and Indian Navy Vision 2047.

The Price of a Family

Brief.pk

Nasir Masih's family became bonded laborers at a brick kiln in central Punjab when he was seven years old, a direct consequence of his father borrowing a small sum from the kiln owner to cover a medical emergency. This specific instance exemplifies the pervasive issue of bonded labor in Pakistan, particularly within the brick kiln industry, where families are compelled into servitude to repay debts.

The Iran Deal Nobody Agrees On

Frame the Globe News

A bomb detonated on a shuttle train in Quetta, Balochistan, on Sunday, May 24, killing at least 24 people, including army servicemen, and wounding over 50. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility for the attack, which derailed the engine and three coaches.

COI Report - Pakistan: Country Focus

European Union Agency for Asylum

Pakistan's geography, demography, ethnic groups, languages, and state structure are comprehensively detailed in a new COI Report published in May 2026. This report provides an overview of the country, examining its background and recent political developments within a regional context, and outlining the main armed actors, encompassing both state armed forces and non-state armed groups.

The Smoke Above Quetta

Brief

On November 9, 2024, at 8:25 am local time, an attack occurred in Quetta, Pakistan, directly impacting Ikhtiar Hussain, a 47-year-old senior ticket inspector, as he arrived for work at Quetta Railway Station. Pakistan’s government promptly condemned the incident, a response explicitly noted as customary, with the counting of the deceased already underway.

China and AI-Military Integration: Perspectives, Opportunities, and Challenges

Asia-Pacific Leadership Network  |  Jingdong Yuan

China is strategically pivoting towards military “intelligentisation”, aggressively integrating AI into the PLA to achieve a decisive edge against the United States. Driven by mandates from the 20th National Congress of the CPC, the Chinese military is modernizing from information-guided and network-centric warfare to AI and automation-driven systems.

I Ran the N.S.A. This Is How to Defeat China’s Hacker Army.

The New York Times  |  Timothy D. Haugh

China has actively targeted America’s telecommunications networks, intellectual property, and critical utilities for over a decade, utilizing hacking proxies like Volt Typhoon and Salt Typhoon to pre-position malware and tap officials' phones. This sustained campaign of intrusion, which annually steals $225 billion to $600 billion in intellectual property, necessitates a unified U.S. response beyond voluntary information sharing.

The Triangle of Happiness: How the Great Power Triumvirate Is Managing the Fourth Systemic Crisis

Velinatchakarova  |  Velina Tchakarova

The United States and China engaged in critical, non-transactional discussions during the Trump–Xi summit in Beijing on May 14, 2026, establishing a framework for "managed stabilisation" and "strategic stability" amidst the "Fourth Systemic Rupture." This global crisis, triggered by the February 28, 2026 US-Israel operation against Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, caused a cascading failure across global energy and commodity supply chains. The summit quietly coordinated Iran's endgame, uranium enrichment, and global system competition rules, with Washington pausing a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan as a "negotiating chip." Six days later, the Putin–Xi summit on May 20 saw Beijing transmit this framework to Moscow, despite the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline deal stalling.

China’s Global Initiatives: Limited Reach, Strategic Openings in the Indian Ocean

Institute for Security and Development Policy | Jiayi Zhou

China's Global Development Initiative (GDI) and Global Security Initiative (GSI), along with the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI) and Global Governance Initiative (GGI), represent competing systems within a fragmented global order marked by intensified stakeholder competition. These initiatives, announced by President Xi Jinping in 2021 and 2023, do not introduce substantively new approaches to China's foreign development and security principles, largely reiterating concepts like the "New Security Concept" from the late 1990s and aligning with UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Decade of Policy Support Drives Quantum Breakthroughs

Jamestown Foundation  |  Sunny Cheung

The People's Republic of China's (PRC) quantum technology sector has achieved significant breakthroughs, driven by a decade of targeted policy support and a multi-tiered, state-aligned capital architecture. This strategic approach, outlined in Five-Year plans and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) mandates, has shifted focus from basic science to engineering targets and large-scale deployment, aiming to convert scientific achievements into operational capabilities and military advantages.

The Iran problem won’t be solved without a counter-drone coalition

Atlantic Council | Bilal Y. Saab, Natasha Ahmed

Following a forty-day intensive bombing campaign by the United States and Israel, Iran responded by expanding the conflict through asymmetric attacks on Gulf energy facilities and blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran's attrition strategy leverages its deep missile and drone arsenal, using cheap drones against expensive interceptors to impose economic and political costs and avoid direct confrontation.

White House Approves $9 Billion for Spy Agencies to Catch Up on A.I.

The New York Times  |  Dustin Volz, Julian E. Barnes

The White House has approved a secret $9 billion request to equip U.S. spy agencies, including the C.I.A. and N.S.A., with cutting-edge computer chips essential for fully deploying the latest artificial intelligence models. This significant funding addresses a critical chip shortage that has prevented intelligence agencies from testing and utilizing advanced AI tools on their classified systems, impacting national security operations.

Why Any Plausible Iran Deal Is a Humiliation for Trump

The New Yorker  |  Isaac Chotiner

President Donald Trump announced the United States and Iran are nearing a deal to end the war launched by the U.S. and Israel against Iran in late February, which has killed thousands. This potential agreement, reportedly involving Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. ending its blockade and Iran relinquishing highly enriched uranium, is characterized by expert Danny Citrinowicz as a humiliating strategic failure for the U.S.

Propaganda wars: Turning the tables on Russia

The Hill  |  Thomas Kent

Mysterious social accounts in West Africa have adopted Russian propaganda tactics to undermine pro-Moscow ruling juntas in the Sahel region. These unidentified accounts, primarily in French on X, Facebook, and TikTok, attack junta leaders, denounce Russia, and make favorable references to Western nations, mirroring Russian information warfare strategies.

The Role of the Neo-Authoritarian Bloc in Contemporary Conflicts

E-International Relations  |  Gerard McDermott

The Neo-Authoritarian Bloc (NAB) of China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Belarus, Venezuela, and Myanmar has significantly altered global geopolitical dynamics, particularly in contemporary conflicts like Ukraine and Myanmar. This non-Western grouping, formed since the beginning of the decade, provides crucial diplomatic, economic, and military support, enabling regimes like Min Aung Hlaing's junta and Vladimir Putin's government to sustain their armed campaigns.

Jamestown Foundation

 China Brief, May 15, v. 26, no. 10 

A ‘New Beginning’ for Xi’s Assimilationist Agenda
Beijing Entrenches Asymmetric Closed-Door Strategy
PRC–Turkmenistan Gas Ties Hedge Hormuz Risk
PLA Reshapes Military Theory Development System for Future Warfare
Decade of Policy Support Drives Quantum Breakthroughs
New Law Engineers Unity
Blaming ‘Foreign Forces’ Backfires for Beijing
Beijing Reacts to Panama Setbacks
PRC Supplies Solar in the Caribbean

African countries can still get US funding for public health—if they cough up minerals and data first

The Bulletin  |  Nelson Evaborhene

The United States, through President Trump’s America First Global Health Strategy, is conditioning critical public health funding for African nations on their provision of minerals and extensive health data. This transactional approach, criticized by experts like Nelson Evaborhene, is perceived as a coercive extraction strategy, drawing parallels to historical colonial practices.

Sorry, climate change is still dangerous, no matter what nonsense Trump emits

The Bulletin | Genevieve Guenther, Michael E. Mann

President Trump recently disseminated false claims on Truth Social, asserting that the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) admitted its high-emissions RCP8.5 projections were “WRONG!” and that climate catastrophe is “alarmism.” This disinformation weaponizes new climate science developments, specifically updated scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) that lowered the high-emissions trajectory due to cheaper clean energy making a dramatic rise in coal use unlikely. The new high-emissions scenario projects approximately 3.5 degrees Celsius warming by 2100, potentially reaching 5 degrees Celsius by 2150, while a medium scenario suggests 3 degrees Celsius by 2100.

What If the Strait of Hormuz Didn’t Reopen?

Bloomberg  |  Javier Blas

A hypothetical scenario posits that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for nearly 90 days following a US-Israeli war on Iran, prompting consideration of the severe economic implications if this vital oil-and-gas sea route does not reopen. This "historical science fiction" thought experiment draws parallels to the 1967 Suez Canal closure, which, despite the Six-Day War ending quickly, kept the waterway shut for eight years, trapping 15 ships and rendering most unseaworthy, forming the "Yellow Fleet." The article explores the "nightmare" scenario of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing the potential for unprecedented disruptions to global energy markets and the significant impact on oil prices.

AI can chart a course to disaster faster than humans can notice

The Bulletin | Hiranya Peiris

King's College London researchers recently demonstrated that commercial AI models, including GPT-5.2, Claude Sonnet 4, and Gemini 3 Flash, consistently escalated to tactical nuclear weapon use in 20 out of 21 Cold War-style wargame simulations. These models, despite having built-in safety rules for individual actions, lacked mechanisms to govern the overall strategic trajectory, leading to dangerous, unanticipated outcomes.

Pope Leo Warns of Risks From A.I. in 42,300-Word Encyclical

The New York Times  |  Motoko Rich, Elisabetta Povoledo, Elizabeth Dias

Pope Leo XIV on Monday issued a 42,300-word papal encyclical, "Magnifica Humanitas," warning global leaders to safeguard humanity from the disruptive effects of artificial intelligence. This significant document outlines his vision for corporate executives, politicians, and individuals, emphasizing the protection of human dignity and agency against technology that threatens to replace people in professional and social roles.

Artificial Intelligence, Disengagement, and Terrorism Prevention: Opportunities and Challenges

GNET | Hugo Champion

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is emerging as a critical tool in counterterrorism efforts, particularly in preventing radicalization and supporting disengagement from violent extremism. Mythos Lab's Aldous chatbot, deployed in 2025, has successfully assisted in the rehabilitation of 52 former Islamic State, Jemaah Islamiyah, and Jamaah Ansharut Daulah terrorists in Indonesia and the Philippines, with 61% showing lower risk levels after three months. Similarly, France's CAPRI utilizes an LLM-based chatbot to guide families concerned about radicalization, screening requests and referring users to specialized services, addressing both far-right extremism and jihadist ideologies.

Clearing Mines in the Strait of Hormuz: Q&A with Scott Savitz

RAND Corporation

U.S. airstrikes have significantly targeted Iran's naval mines, reportedly destroying 90 percent of its formidable stockpile in recent months. Despite these efforts, the perceived risk from even a few remaining Iranian mines in the Strait of Hormuz has paralyzed shipping traffic in this critical global waterway.

The past and future of deterrence is arms control

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists  |  Andrew Facini

Deterrence, both historically and prospectively, is intrinsically linked to arms control. This core argument posits that the efficacy and stability of deterrence, particularly concerning nuclear weapons, are fundamentally shaped by the existence and adherence to arms control treaties.

Delimitation After Defeat: India’s Unfinished Debate Over Representation

Carnegie Endowment | Louise Tillin, Milan Vaishnav, Andy Robaina

India's government recently failed to pass three bills aimed at addressing the country's long-standing delimitation issue, intensifying the debate over parliamentary representation. Since the last reapportionment in 1971, India's population has surged by nearly 1 billion, leading to significant malapportionment where northern states are underrepresented and southern states are overrepresented.

India’s GDP revisions explained: what changed and why it matters

360info  |  Pranav Trigunayat

India has revised its economic growth measurement methodology after a decade, updating the GDP computation base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23. This revision, delayed by GST rollout in 2017 and COVID-19, follows a previous controversial update in 2015.

Marco Rubio Goes to India in Repair Mode

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Sadanand Dhume

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits India from May 23–26 to repair relations that have significantly deteriorated over the past year, despite earlier optimism in April 2025.

GHQ’s Moment

FrameTheGlobeNews 

Bangladesh's GDP per capita surpassed Pakistan's around 2020, a significant economic milestone that occurred without public announcement or diplomatic incident, as indicated by an IMF chart. This quiet shift highlights a stark contrast with the perception of Pakistan's military, referred to as GHQ, which the article implies maintains a strong international standing and operational success abroad.

Hellscape Taiwan: Drones, Deterrence, and the Future of Asymmetric Defense

Irregular Warfare Podcast

Taiwan could deter or potentially defeat a Chinese invasion by transforming the Taiwan Strait into an "unmanned hellscape" through advanced asymmetric defense strategies. This approach, anchored in the recent CNAS report "Hellscape for Taiwan: Rethinking Asymmetric Defense," explores the critical role of drones and autonomous systems.

Opinion – The Need for a More Assertive Diplomatic Stance from China on Iran

E-International Relations  |  Sergio Villarroel

Iran's conflict with the United States and Israel has devolved into a stalemate, with both the U.S. and Israel facing significant challenges and diplomatic isolation. China, despite extensive economic ties with Iran, including 80% of its oil exports, maintains a passive diplomatic stance.

Opinion | Why the world needs China to save more, not less

South China Morning Post | Jeffrey D. Sachs

The G7 economists and IMF's April report incorrectly prescribe that China's current account surplus is excessive and should be cut by boosting consumption. The world economy, particularly emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), benefits from China's high saving, which is exported as net capital outflows, increasing China's financial claims globally.

A U.S. Campaign to Exploit Beijing’s Weaknesses

Center for Strategic and International Studies  |  Nicholas Harrington

The United States must pursue an invigorated hybrid warfare campaign to exploit the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) enduring vulnerabilities, aiming to keep China too weak, distracted, or insecure to dominate East Asia. This offensive strategy capitalizes on the CCP's prioritization of narratives over facts, endemic corruption, excessive strongman rule under Xi Jinping, paranoia about U.S. intentions, and limited international allies.

Pegged and Burning

FrameTheGlobeNews

Washington and Tel Aviv dedicated three years to war-gaming potential military action against Iran, meticulously planning strike sequences and identifying critical targets like Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan for bunker-busting operations. This extensive strategic preparation, however, constituted a fundamental miscalculation by Washington concerning Iran, exacerbated by the 'Dollar Chain' and its profound economic implications.

The War Against Iran Has Weakened the US in the Great Power Competition

E-International Relations  |  Bülent Gökay

The US-Israeli war against Iran, initiated by President Donald Trump on February 28, has caused significant global economic disruptions by closing the Straits of Hormuz, impacting 20% of worldwide oil and natural gas transport, leading to surging fuel prices, increased electricity costs, and disruptions to critical supplies like fertilizers and semiconductors, severely affecting Asia-Pacific and African nations. The conflict accelerates US hegemony's decline by draining resources, creating a power vacuum for China to expand influence via diplomacy.

Beyond AI: What the Pentagon is missing with its trimmed ‘critical technologies’ list

The Bulletin | Julie George

The Defense Department recently announced it was paring down its list of "critical technology areas" from 14 to six, focusing on applied artificial intelligence, biomanufacturing, contested logistics, quantum and battlefield information dominance, scaled directed energy, and scaled hypersonics. While this streamlining aims to concentrate funding, the Pentagon's approach risks creating significant blind spots by disproportionately investing in AI, which already attracts substantial private capital, while neglecting other vital technologies.

The Gift That Keeps Taking

Frame The Globe

Barack Obama’s Presidential Center is reportedly causing significant community displacement in Chicago, particularly within the area surrounding Jackson Park. This development, characterized by the article as "The Gift That Keeps Taking," is allegedly financed by a network of "oligarch donors." The project's impact is centered on Jackson Park, a substantial 550-acre lakefront green expanse situated at Chicago's southeastern edge.

Opinion – It’s Time to Restore Back-Channel Diplomacy

E-International Relations  |  Jiachen Shi

Donald Trump's approach to U.S. foreign policy, characterized by "maximum publicity" and brinkmanship, has reduced diplomacy to a "geopolitical meme war," prioritizing spectacle over careful, discreet negotiations. This has led to a call for the United States to restore back-channel diplomacy, minimizing officials, operating away from public pressure, and delaying publicity until outcomes are secured.

Estimating the Effects on the UK of State Information, Influence, and Interference Threats Using Digital Disinformation, Distortion, and Deception

CREST Research | Martin Innes, Isabella Orpen, James Ashford

The UK lacks an adequate methodology for estimating foreign state information, influence, and interference (III) threats, a gap this research addresses by focusing on Russian digital disinformation operations. These include the Internet Research Agency's post-2017 terror attack amplification and the Social Design Agency's Doppelganger campaign.

Military Strategy Magazine, Spring 2026, v. 11, no. 1

 Military Strategy Magazine, Spring 2026, v. 11, no. 1 

On Defense and Offense: Revisiting Clausewitz, Mao Zedong and Thucydides

Beyond Random Acts of Touching: Six Core Pillars on How to Think About Security Cooperation

Can Clausewitz’s “Center of Gravity” Survive the Digital Age?

The Trafalgar Imperative: Why the USAF Must Innovate or Stagnate

Extended Nuclear Deterrence Strategy

Military Leadership In the 18th Century: Lessons for Strategic Leadership, Strategy, and Statesmanship Today

Once Trump’s Co-Pilot Against Iran, Netanyahu Is Now a Mere Passenger

The New York Times  |  David M. Halbfinger, Ronen Bergman

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a key partner with President Trump in the lead-up to the February 28 attack on Iran, has been significantly sidelined from subsequent U.S.-Iran truce talks, a humbling setback with significant risks for Israel. Weeks after Netanyahu predicted a joint U.S.-Israeli strike could lead to the Islamic Republic's demise, Israeli leaders were cut almost entirely out of the loop by the Trump administration, forcing them to gather intelligence through regional contacts and their own surveillance from inside the Iranian regime.

Among Democrats, support for Israel is crumbling – with major implications

The Christian Science Monitor | Simon Montlake

Democratic support for Israel is dramatically crumbling, a significant shift evident in primary campaigns nationwide and potentially leading to major U.S.-Israel policy changes if the party gains congressional control. A New York Times-Siena poll found only 24% of Democrats support additional aid to Israel, with 68% opposing, and 57% sympathizing more with Palestinians.

How Ukraine Found the Cards To Win, Without Help From the U.S.

Time |Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, William B. Taylor, Cedric Leighton and Steven Tian

Ukraine has demonstrated significant strategic gains against Russia, primarily through its ingenuity in drone technology and exploiting Russia's faltering economy, despite reduced U.S. assistance. Ukrainian-designed drones are systematically striking high-value military and industrial targets over 1,000 kilometers inside Russia, including aviation bases, electronic component plants, and critical energy infrastructure like Lukoil platforms and refineries in Saratov and Tuapse, bypassing restrictions on Western missiles.

Timeline of Ukraine Invasion: War In The Black Sea

H I Sutton

The Russo-Ukraine War in the Black Sea has seen significant naval engagements and strategic shifts since January 2022. Russia initially built up forces in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, deploying warships and bombers, and capturing Snake Island on February 24, 2022, while declaring a navigation prohibition.

Salt and Consequence

FrameTheGlobeNews

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently convened an emergency session in Paris, announcing the largest coordinated oil release in its fifty-year history, totaling 400 million barrels.