Quincy Institute | Abdulwahab Alkebsi
Iran's ongoing war with the United States and Israel presents a third, less-discussed trajectory for its future beyond regime collapse or mere survival: a gradual internal transformation. This shift would see the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the broader military-security establishment emerge as the dominant power center, increasingly constraining the authority of clerical and elected institutions. The Islamic Republic, a complex hybrid of clerical, civilian, and military bodies, has historically relied on ideological foundations for legitimacy. However, sustained conflict inherently elevates coercive institutions like the IRGC, which are best equipped for defense and survival, thereby pivoting domestic legitimacy towards security imperatives. This dynamic could lead Iran towards a military-dominant governance structure akin to Pakistan's "deep state" model, where civilian bodies operate within boundaries set by a powerful security apparatus. Such an outcome would result in a more rigid, security-driven Iranian state, potentially less amenable to diplomatic compromise, even if clerical structures formally remain intact.
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