E-International Relations | Mordechai Chaziza and Roie Yellinek
The 2026 closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a systemic energy shock, embodying a "grey rhino" event: a high-probability, high-impact threat that advanced economies neglected. Western energy systems, optimized for short-term efficiency, lacked resilience due to inadequate deterrence, a premature energy transition that dismantled legacy buffers before alternatives matured, and democratic constraints hindering long-term strategic investments. This systemic imbalance created a cascading 'triple shock'—rising energy prices, food insecurity, and slowing growth—profoundly impacting developing economies and exposing global supply chain vulnerabilities. China, however, implemented a comprehensive hedging strategy, diversifying supply, expanding overland routes, and accumulating the world's largest strategic oil reserves, alongside dominant investments in clean energy technologies. This approach prioritizes resilience, fostering a significant asymmetry in global preparedness. Future energy security necessitates diversification, longer planning horizons, technological innovation, and integrating energy policy with broader economic security, transforming it into a core component of grand strategy.
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