Navroop Singh and Himja Parekh
The Middle East stands at a historic inflection point. On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates’ abrupt withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1 has dismantled the cartel’s third-largest producer at a time when the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has already closed the Strait of Hormuz, spiked global oil prices above $110 per barrel, and triggered emergency dollar-swap requests from Abu Dhabi. This is no mere technical dispute over quotas.
It crystallizes a deeper fracture: the failure of an audacious Israeli-American regime-change gamble against Tehran, the acceleration of Saudi-Emirati proxy wars from Sudan to Somaliland, and the UAE’s exposed vulnerability as a resource-poor financial entrepôt now tethered exclusively to Washington and Tel Aviv. What follows unpacks the sequence of strategic miscalculations, the intensifying Gulf rivalry, and the sweeping geopolitical realignments that have left Abu Dhabi increasingly vulnerable
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