2 May 2026

The U.S. Economy Was Shaky Before the Iran War. Now It’s in Real Trouble.

Roger W. Ferguson Jr.

Roger W. Ferguson Jr. is the Steven A Tananbaum Distinguished Fellow for International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations. Maximilian Hippold is a research associate at CFR.

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the February U.S. and Israeli attack has sparked a global economic supply shock. The resulting damage could exceed the disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Despite a two-week ceasefire, traffic through the strait has hardly resumed to the level that President Donald Trump had promised, and countries around the world have started to feel the effects.

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