Macroeconomic Headwinds for India: Navigating West Asia Oil Shock, Capital Outflows & Rupee Depreciation

Niti Shastra  |  Navroop Singh, Himja Parekh

India's economy faces severe macroeconomic headwinds in mid-2026. Escalating West Asia conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions propelled Brent crude prices to $111–120 per barrel, now $105–106. India, importing 85% of its crude, sees a $10 oil price increase widen its current account deficit by 40–50 basis points of GDP. April 2026 merchandise trade deficit hit $28.4 billion; FY27 CAD is projected at 2.3–2.4% of GDP, with a Balance of Payments deficit exceeding $65–70 billion.

Deepening deterrence: India’s expanding SSBN capability

IISS  |  Joseph Dempsey, Karl Dewey

On 3 April 2026, the Indian Navy commissioned INS Aridhaman (S4), its third nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), at Visakhapatnam, marking a significant step in its maturing sea-based nuclear deterrent. This development, corroborated by IISS satellite imagery, reflects India's progress towards a credible second-strike capability and a robust nuclear triad.

Afghanistan in China's Extended CPEC 2.0 Strategy

Institute for Security and Development Policy | Ratish Mehta

The May 2025 trilateral agreement between China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, formalizing the extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghan territory, was celebrated by Beijing as a geopolitical turning point, yet within five months, Pakistan and Afghanistan exchanged artillery fire and airstrikes. This demonstrated Beijing’s economic statecraft proved insufficient for the region's political complexity, failing to address the ideological-military nexus causing volatility on the Af-Pak border.

Hormuz Is a Warning for the Indo-Pacific: The Coming Contest for Asia’s Waterways

Foreign Affairs | Lynn Kuok

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) moved to close the Strait of Hormuz in late February, issuing warnings and employing drones, antiship missiles, and mines to disrupt oil exports and send energy prices soaring. This crisis demonstrates that closing a strait has become easier due to inexpensive technologies, while concentrated global trade magnifies the impact, with major powers increasingly willing to disregard international law.

The Island-Chain Allies

The Wire China  |  Chris Horton

Japan and the Philippines are significantly deepening defense cooperation, exemplified by the Balikatan 2026 military exercises where Japanese troops sank the Philippine BRP Quezon with Type 88 anti-ship missiles off northern Luzon. These exercises, the largest to date with 1,400 Japanese troops, implicitly targeted China, demonstrating a united front among "First Island Chain" democracies including Taiwan.

PLA Reshapes Military Theory Development System for Future Warfare

Jamestown | K. Tristan Tang

The People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) _Regulations on Military Theory Work_ officially took effect on March 1, fundamentally reshaping the Chinese military theory development system. These regulations aim to accelerate the modernization of military theory, focusing on building a joint operational theory system capable of adapting to future warfare, particularly informatized and intelligentized warfare.

China and Russia: the uneasy couple

Asia Times  |  Francesco Sisci

Russia seeks to intensify its relationship with China but publicly expresses anxiety that Beijing treats it as a junior partner, avoiding full commitment to their strategic partnership, as highlighted by a May 16 RT criticism. China, conversely, is irritated by Russia's deepening ties with North Korea, which Beijing views as its periphery and a move impacting regional security, including rearmament in South Korea and Japan.

Beijing Entrenches Asymmetric Closed-Door Strategy

Substack | Christopher Nye & Charles Sun

The People's Republic of China (PRC) is systematically constructing a functional closed-door regime to retain core factors of production—people, capital, frontier technology, and proprietary information—within its borders, citing national security imperatives. This doctrine is evidenced by recent administrative regulations and enforcement actions, including the State Council's Orders No. 834 and 835, and the NDRC's prohibition of Meta's acquisition of Chinese AI firm Manus.

Xi Jinping’s praise of ‘Make America Great Again’ a major signal

Asia Times |Lanxin Xiang

Chinese President Xi Jinping publicly praised the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement at a state banquet during a summit with Trump in Beijing, a gesture largely dismissed by Western media and China hawks. Trump swiftly reciprocated by downplaying Taiwan's strategic importance, refusing to defend it via traditional military deterrence, and pressuring the Taiwanese government on arms sales to manage the Taiwan Strait issue within an agreed "constructive strategic stability" framework.

China’s Quiet Summit Victory

National Interest  |  Christopher Nye

Chinese President Xi Jinping secured a significant diplomatic victory during last week's summit with President Donald Trump in Beijing, establishing a framework for “a constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability” over the next three years. While Beijing offered extensive pageantry, rhetorical fusion, and endorsements on Iran's nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, along with economic deliverables like 200 Boeing aircraft and $17 billion in agricultural goods, these were largely reversals of prior disruptions.

A Fine Balance: Dependence and Autonomy in US Alliances

Geopoliticalmonitor

US overseas military bases deliver unmatched reach but bind allied land and infrastructure into a strategic architecture, potentially pulling host countries into conflicts beyond their direct control. The core issue in alliance politics is the degree of control a host country retains once its territory becomes critical to a larger military system, a dynamic sharpened during intensified military activity.

Spheres by Default

Foreign Affairs  |  Rebecca Lissner, Mira Rapp-Hooper

Since U.S. President Donald Trump took office last January, analysts have debated whether his administration is pursuing a sphere of influence strategy, an approach where great powers divide the world into privileged blocs.

Trump met top advisers on Iran as he weighs return to war

Axios  |  Barak Ravid

President Trump convened a meeting with his senior national security team on Friday morning to discuss the potential for war with Iran, as two U.S. officials informed Axios. Trump is seriously considering launching new strikes against Iran, a decision contingent on the failure of last-minute negotiations, according to sources who have directly communicated with the president.

Bypassing the straits: The India-Middle East-Europe corridor needs a wartime redesign

European Council on Foreign Relations  |  Cinzia Bianco, Arturo Varvelli

The war in Iran has imposed a $25 billion cost on global business, largely due to the weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz, exposing the vulnerabilities of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). Conceived for peacetime, IMEC's reliance on maritime chokepoints and its proposed route through Israel now render it ill-suited for a region dominated by grey zone conflict.

Moscow’s views of the war of tomorrow

NATO Defense College  |  Andrew Monaghan

Russia’s vision of “tomorrow’s war” differs sharply from NATO’s, envisioning a large-scale global confrontation with geoeconomic roots driven by the United States, rather than a localized conflict in north-eastern Europe. Moscow's core scenario involves a U.S.-led “21st century blitzkrieg” featuring waves of missile strikes coordinated with highly mobile, multi-domain forces, with a particular emphasis on maritime threats.

New Law Gives Kremlin Expanded Power to Use Force to Defend Russians Abroad

Eurasia Daily Monitor | Paul Goble

The Russian Duma passed a new law granting the Kremlin expanded authority to deploy military force abroad to defend Russian citizens if they are arrested or charged, including by international courts in which Russia does not participate. This measure, approved by the Federation Council and awaiting President Putin's signature, aims to intimidate other countries and international legal bodies, deterring them from prosecuting Russians, potentially including Putin himself, and thereby undermining the international legal system.

Parameters, Summer 2026 no. 56, no. 2

 Parameters, Summer 2026 no. 56, no. 2 

The State of the US Army

Fighting for Intelligence in Large-Scale Combat Operations: The Role of the Intelligence and Electronic Warfare Battalion–Next

Geopolitical Chessboard: How Vietnam Shapes American-Chinese Competition

Key Themes in Sino-American History

Rethinking Power: E. H. Carr’s Enduring Lessons for Modern Strategists

How Is Going to War Like Buying a Car?: The Bargaining Model of War

A New Security Framework for NATO’s Eastern Flank

Turning Tactical Victories into Strategic Success: Counterinsurgency in the Irish Civil War, 1922–23

Closing the Gap Between Threat and Rival

The Cockroach Problem

FrameTheGlobeNews  

A political communications student at Boston University, Abhijeet Dipke, recently launched a Google form to recruit members for a satirical political party he named 'the Cock…'. This seemingly innocuous digital initiative quickly escalated into a significant event, as highlighted by the article's subheadline, 'Twenty-One Million Followers and the State That Flinched'.

No more political games: Canada must come to the table

The Hill  |  Rep. Claudia Tenney

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) faces its first mandatory six-year review by July 1, with the U.S. seeking to address outstanding trade issues with Canada and Mexico. While Mexico has engaged pragmatically, Canada has refused to come to the negotiating table, jeopardizing the agreement's progress and the "huge victory" it represented for American families, farmers, manufacturers, and small businesses.

Gaza Killed Harris in Michigan. The DNC’s 192-Page Autopsy Does Not Contain the Word.

TheGlobalChief

The Democratic National Committee's comprehensive 192-page post-mortem report, designed to analyze Kamala Harris's electoral defeat, notably fails to mention 'Gaza,' despite the article's direct assertion that the conflict was a decisive factor in her loss in Michigan. This extensive DNC autopsy delves into various internal campaign shortcomings, specifically detailing issues related to advertising expenditures, the candidate's preparation, and identified messaging failures.

Musk’s SpaceX Reveals Its Finances for the First Time

The New York Times  |  Ryan Mac, Lauren Hirsch

SpaceX, Elon Musk’s privately held rocket and satellite maker, disclosed its financial performance for the first time on Wednesday, revealing revenue soared to $18.7 billion in 2025, a 33 percent increase from the previous year. In the first three months of this year, revenue reached $4.7 billion, up from $4.1 billion. Despite this growth, SpaceX reported a significant loss of over $4.9 billion in 2025, a stark contrast to its $791 million profit in 2024, primarily due to capital expenditures nearly doubling to $20.7 billion from heavy spending on artificial intelligence development. The company, which values itself at $1.25 trillion, lost $4.3 billion in Q1 this year and is preparing for an initial public offering as early as next month, aiming to raise $50 billion to $75 billion. This potential IPO, one of the largest to date, could precede offerings from other major A.I. companies like Anthropic and OpenAI.

Read Full Article →

Iran War Exposes Shortcomings in U.S. Military Industrial Base

The New York Times  |  Julian E. Barnes

The Iran war has exposed deep shortcomings in America’s military industrial base and weapon procurement systems, as the U.S. military rapidly expended over 1,200 Patriot interceptor missiles. These missiles, costing $4 million and taking up to 36 months to build, were often used to shoot down $35,000 Shahed drones that Iran produces at a rate of at least 200 per month.

REVIEWING DEPARTMENT OF WAR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY, POLICY, AND PROGRAMS FOR FISCAL YEAR 2027

United States Senate Committee on Armed Services  |  Chris Manning

The U.S. Army is undergoing a generational transformation of its innovation enterprise to dominate in an era of unprecedented technological disruption and Great Power competition.

The Quick and the Dead: How Adaptation in Contact Drives Military Advantage

Hudson Institute  |  Bryan Clark, Dan Patt, Ian Crone

A military force that adapts faster over repeated engagements can decisively defeat one with superior firepower and equipment, a phenomenon increasingly visible on Ukrainian battlefields where military advantage is migrating from what a force possesses to how fast it can learn. This report proposes "Adaptation in Contact"—the deliberate weaponization of the learning cycle—as the next revolution in military affairs, involving operational contact generating data, rapid development of updated tactics and software, and validated changes deploying before adversaries react.

Fighting for Intelligence in Large-Scale Combat Operations: The Role of the Intelligence and Electronic Warfare Battalion–Next

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters  |  Richard Appelhans, Michael Liesmann, B. Clay Jackson, Mikael Heikkinen

The US Army's proposed intelligence and electronic warfare battalion–next (IEW Bn–Next) concept is deemed an essential organizational solution for achieving intelligence dominance in large-scale combat operations (LSCO). This innovative design transcends legacy formations predicated on specific intelligence disciplines, instead offering a functionally oriented, modular, and layered architecture.