India’s Multialignment and Democratization of the International Order

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Sarang Shidore

India's multialignment strategy, driven by self-interest rather than pure ideology, actively shapes its position within the international order, creating both synergy and friction with the United States. Originating from its post-colonial identity and desire for a more representative global system, this approach evolved from historical nonalignment into a pragmatic pursuit of strong bilateral ties with multiple major powers. India has consistently pushed for increased representation in global governance structures like the United Nations and international financial institutions. This strategy guides India's significant relationships with the US, France, Russia, and Israel, reflecting a nuanced foreign policy that balances shared interests with independent action. Even as tactical shifts occur, multialignment is expected to remain India’s core strategy, compelling partners like Washington to find cooperative approaches despite occasional disagreements.

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India and Security Norms in the Liberal International Order

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Kate Sullivan de Estrada

India is strategically navigating the liberal international order (LIO), selectively engaging with security norms while steadfastly preserving its autonomy. The nation deepens security cooperation with the United States and Indo-Pacific partners like Japan and Australia within the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, yet consistently avoids formal, treaty-based alliances that would entail binding defense commitments. India champions nuclear restraint and responsible stewardship but remains outside the nonproliferation regime's core framework, aligning its domestic legislation with international standards without full integration. This approach allows New Delhi to enhance its material capacity and regional legitimacy, contributing to global security discussions while resisting hierarchical structures or explicit identification of adversaries. Its engagement also balances long-standing ties with Russia against evolving partnerships, reflecting a nuanced foreign policy rooted in its historical experiences, such as the 1971 USS Enterprise incident, which fueled distrust of overt alignment. This selective participation ensures independent decision-making in crisis management and security community integration.

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The Islamabad Process: A User’s Guide

FrameTheGlobeNews |  TheGlobalChief

Pakistan, despite profound domestic challenges including widespread poverty, child stunting, and a massive out-of-school population, has strategically positioned itself as a crucial mediator in the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran. Dubbed "The Islamabad Process," this diplomatic effort saw Pakistan facilitate a ceasefire announcement and host high-level delegations, including US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi, for intense negotiations. While Pakistani media celebrated these diplomatic achievements, even suggesting Nobel Peace Prize nominations, the article highlights a stark contrast with the country's internal realities, where the economic burden of the conflict, such as soaring fuel prices, exacerbates existing social crises. The process, involving carrying multiple proposals and brokering ceasefire extensions, has not yielded tangible relief for Pakistan in terms of sanctions or IMF program benefits. Furthermore, Pakistan has faced accusations from US Senator Lindsey Graham regarding Iranian aircraft at a Pakistani airbase and from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu concerning social media bot farms, underscoring the complex and scrutinized nature of its mediating role. The global attention on Pakistan's diplomatic prowess starkly overshadows its profound domestic struggles.

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Bangladesh’s New Government Gets Down to Business

Crisis Group

Bangladesh's political landscape underwent significant transformation following a recent uprising, culminating in the establishment of a new elected government. The article details the period after the upheaval, including the interim government's reforms and their mixed outcomes, setting the stage for the subsequent electoral process. It then focuses on the return to an elected system, highlighting a "festival of voting" that led to a clear Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) majority and the subsequent peaceful transfer of power, alongside the international community's varied reactions. The core of the analysis addresses the formidable challenges confronting the new administration. These include fostering sustainable economic growth, implementing crucial political reforms to strengthen democratic institutions, ensuring public safety and justice, and advancing rights and reconciliation efforts to heal societal divisions. Furthermore, the government must navigate complex social change, address gender politics, and define a coherent foreign policy direction. This comprehensive overview underscores the multifaceted agenda facing Bangladesh's leadership as it strives for stability and progress in a post-uprising environment.

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Sri Lanka’s Bumpy Road to a Political Reset

Crisis Group

Sri Lanka's political landscape is undergoing a significant reset following the "political earthquake of 2024," marked by crucial elections and the emergence of the National People’s Power. The nation grapples with complex economic challenges, necessitating adherence to International Monetary Fund (IMF) guardrails while navigating inherent political and economic risks. A central theme is the imperative to challenge impunity, reform the legal system, and address deep-seated corruption. This includes pursuing accountability for the Easter bombings and war-related atrocities, alongside broader legislative reforms. The prospect of a new constitution is also on the agenda, aiming to redefine governance. However, the path to reform faces substantial obstacles, including high public expectations, slow progress, and the double-edged sword of moralism. A viable way forward involves robust efforts to fight impunity, assert control over the security apparatus, strengthen oversight commissions, ensure economic equity, and foster international cooperation to stabilize the country.

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The Silk Road and South Asia: China’s Bridge from Regional to Global Politics - Institute for Security and Development Policy

Institute for Security and Development Policy  |  John S. Van Oudenaren

China's foreign policy under Xi Jinping has undergone a significant, albeit gradual, transformation from a regionally concentrated approach in East Asia to an assertive global strategy, directly challenging established U.S. leadership. South Asia has emerged as a central theater in this strategic pivot, largely due to its integral role within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which effectively extends Beijing's geopolitical and economic influence far beyond its immediate neighborhood. Several critical factors underscore the region's importance: South Asia's strategic geography is indispensable for China's broader connectivity and security objectives. Moreover, the complex power dynamics within the region, characterized by India's traditional dominance alongside the rising ambitions of states like Pakistan and Bangladesh, present Beijing with strategic opportunities to exploit existing tensions and expand its footprint. The notable absence of cohesive regional institutions, unlike the robust ASEAN framework, further enables China to cultivate influence through a network of overlapping, Sino-centric multilateral arrangements. This expanding engagement is normatively underpinned by a shared narrative of a rising Global South, providing a legitimate basis for deeper cooperation between China and various South Asian nations.

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China’s Nuclear Energy Priorities Under Its 15th Five-Year Plan

CSIS  |  Jane Nakano and Yu-Hsuan Yeh

China's adoption of its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) in March marks a significant strategic milestone for its national development, especially regarding nuclear energy. This comprehensive plan, traditionally outlining key economic and social development goals, will undoubtedly detail Beijing's priorities for expanding its nuclear power capacity, enhancing reactor technology, and securing its long-term energy future. Given China's ambitious climate targets and rapidly growing energy demands, the 15FYP is anticipated to emphasize accelerated nuclear plant construction, potentially incorporating advanced reactor designs such as small modular reactors (SMRs) and fast breeder reactors. These strategic investments are crucial for bolstering energy independence, reducing reliance on fossil fuels, and positioning China as a formidable global leader in nuclear technology and exports. The specific policy directives, regulatory frameworks, and financial allocations outlined within this plan will profoundly influence global energy markets, international non-proliferation efforts, and technological competition. However, the provided article text is regrettably incomplete, precluding a detailed analysis of these specific priorities and their broader strategic implications for both domestic and international stakeholders. The plan was adopted following the annual session, as reported by Xinhua News Agency.

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China and the war in Iran: pragmatism and national resilience

IISS |  Erik Green, Olivia Parker, Wira Ejau, Morgan Michaels, Meia Nouwens

China's strategic response to the US-Israel war against Iran has been a pragmatic balancing act, driven by economic interests and the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) ambitions in the Middle East and the Global South. While China's economy has shown resilience against initial supply-chain disruptions, benefiting from diverted US assets and promoting an alternative world order, internal discussions reveal concerns regarding long-term supply chain vulnerabilities and its image as a neutral Global South leader. Beijing has maintained a hedging approach, prioritizing its five principles of peaceful co-existence and enhancing national self-reliance rather than assuming a prominent mediating role. Economic vulnerabilities, particularly concerning critical chemical imports from Iran, have prompted measures like banning sulphuric acid exports. Looking ahead, China aims to strengthen economic resilience and diversify energy dependencies by leveraging relationships with Russia and other oil-producing states through multilateral platforms like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. This approach underscores a continued focus on domestic and national interests, suggesting pragmatism will likely supersede decisive mediation in future conflicts, especially those outside its immediate neighborhood.

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Exploring Instability Risks in the U.S.-China AI Rivalry: Breakwater Game Overview and Initial Observations | RAND

RAND Corporation  |  Abby Doll, Karl P. Mueller

The intensifying strategic rivalry between the United States and China in artificial intelligence (AI) development raises significant instability risks, including the potential for either nation to employ military force or cyber warfare to disrupt the other's AI ecosystem. This technological competition, particularly concerning the race to artificial general intelligence (AGI), could prompt preventive actions aimed at securing a lead or preventing a rival from achieving AGI first. RAND's research team has developed and initiated a game called Breakwater to analyze these dynamics. Breakwater explores the conditions under which competitors might resort to such preventive measures, how perceptions of AI development trajectories influence strategic behavior and risk tolerance, and the factors that contribute to the stabilization or destabilization of the competition. Anticipating and managing these potential escalatory pathways is critical for national security and technology policymakers to avert armed conflict and catastrophic outcomes. This paper provides an overview of the game design and initial observations.

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China Looks To Ease Iran Into Resolution of War With U.S.

Foundation for Defense of Democracies  |  Jack Burnham

China is actively seeking to de-escalate the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, aiming to create an off-ramp for Tehran without forcing its capitulation. On May 6, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing to discuss the conflict and strengthen bilateral ties, as Iran continues to threaten international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz amidst an American blockade. Beijing's diplomatic strategy focuses on reopening the Strait, which is crucial for global energy markets and China's economy, while carefully avoiding direct blame on Tehran or commenting on its nuclear weapons program beyond acknowledging Iran's right to peaceful enrichment. China has also provided significant material support to Iran, including receiving over 90 percent of its crude exports, supplying dual-use chemical precursors for ballistic missiles, and reportedly providing commercial satellite imagery for targeting U.S. military installations. Furthermore, China remains a key supplier of components for Iran's drone sector, enabling Tehran's continued military operations. This dual approach of diplomatic engagement and covert support highlights China's strategic balancing act to protect its interests and maintain influence in the region.

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The Trump–Xi summit: can progress be made on Iran?

Chatham House | Bronwen Maddox

A prospective summit between former US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping would likely feature discussions on the complex issue of Iran, particularly concerning its nuclear program and regional activities. The central question revolves around the potential for meaningful progress, given the divergent interests and approaches of Washington and Beijing towards Tehran. US policy under a potential Trump administration might seek China's leverage to pressure Iran, possibly in exchange for concessions on other bilateral issues. China, while a signatory to the JCPOA, has maintained economic ties with Iran and often advocates for diplomatic solutions, potentially positioning itself as a mediator or a counterweight to US unilateralism. Any joint US-China initiative on Iran would represent a significant shift in global diplomacy, impacting Middle Eastern stability and the broader non-proliferation regime. However, the historical complexities of US-China relations and their respective strategic priorities suggest that achieving substantial breakthroughs on Iran would be highly challenging, requiring intricate negotiations and a willingness to compromise from both sides. This hypothetical summit underscores the critical role of great power diplomacy in addressing persistent international security challenges.

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Is the United States Prepared for a War with China?

Center for Strategic and International Studies |  Seth G. Jones

The United States military faces significant challenges in sustaining a protracted conflict with China, primarily due to critical shortages in long-range munitions, advanced air defense systems, interceptors, and unmanned air, undersea, and surface platforms. Deterring or engaging in a two-front war across the Indo-Pacific and Europe would exacerbate these deficiencies, highlighting a strategic vulnerability. Production timelines for essential munitions like SM-6, SM-3 IB, JASSM, and Tomahawk extend to three to four years, meaning recent Pentagon efforts to increase production, while helpful, cannot provide immediate solutions. This situation necessitates a rapid and sustained investment in the defense industrial base and strategic stockpiling to enhance U.S. warfighting capacity and deterrence posture against a peer competitor like China.

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Reshaping the international legal order: China’s strategic use of lawfare and lessons learned for Europe

The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies  |  Benedetta Girardi, Anna Hoefnagels and Berend Kwak

China is actively reshaping the international legal order, not by outright rejection, but through a strategic application of “lawfare.” A new HCSS report details how Beijing reinterprets existing norms, establishes parallel institutions, and gradually expands its influence across global governance. The report introduces a five-stage framework illustrating how rising powers translate legal strategy into systemic change, from delegitimizing norms to building support for alternative legal arrangements. China's approach is notably advanced in trade governance, where Belt and Road-linked dispute resolution mechanisms offer credible alternatives to Western fora, and is strategically disruptive in maritime security and technology governance. This creates structural asymmetries for Europe, as China treats law as an instrument of competition, exploiting EU fragmentation and eroding normative influence. To counter this, Europe must adopt a more strategic approach, strengthening legal diplomacy, investing in competitive dispute resolution, coordinating responses to extraterritorial legislation, prioritizing international standard-setting, and embedding legal cooperation in external partnerships.

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The AI Escalation Danger Trump and Xi Must Address

Center for Strategic and International Studies |  Benjamin Jensen, Yasir Atalan 

The upcoming May 14–15 summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing presents a critical opportunity to address the escalating dangers posed by artificial intelligence in U.S.-China relations. While AI could foster mutual cooperation, a significant underlying problem is the observed escalatory tendencies in China’s foundation models, such as DeepSeek. These biases raise concerns about the potential for unintended escalation in future conflicts, particularly given the rapid advancements in AI-driven military applications. Strategic dialogue is imperative to establish guardrails and prevent AI from becoming a destabilizing force in an already complex geopolitical landscape. Both leaders must prioritize discussions on developing mechanisms to mitigate these risks, ensuring that AI development and deployment do not inadvertently trigger or exacerbate international crises. Failure to address these inherent escalatory biases could lead to a dangerous arms race and increased global instability.

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US Technology Companies Should Keep Operating in China

ITIF

The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) challenges the prevailing Washington sentiment advocating for U.S. companies to decouple from China, particularly those serving the local Chinese market. While acknowledging concerns like forced labor and technology transfer, ITIF argues that maintaining a presence serves U.S. national interests. Key benefits include increasing revenue and market share that would otherwise go to Chinese firms, fostering global R&D investment, enabling reverse technology spillover back to America, creating dependencies among Chinese users, and providing access to high-quality talent and market insights. Data from 2023 indicates U.S. affiliates generated over $640 billion in revenue, with 70 percent sold within China. The report advises against government pressure on U.S. companies operating for the Chinese market, instead recommending targeted policies for offshoring production not serving China, improving transparency, and retaining Chinese talent in the U.S.

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ITOW: Legal Warfare

Air University

The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) has formally integrated "legal warfare" (法律战) into its strategic doctrine, as outlined in the newly promulgated "Regulations on the Political Work of the Chinese People's Liberation Army." This development marks a significant innovation in strengthening army building and preparing for military struggles in the new era, positioning legal warfare alongside public opinion warfare (舆论战) and psychological warfare (心理战) as key components of the "three wars" strategy. While public opinion and psychological warfare draw from the PLA's historical traditions, legal warfare is a novel formulation requiring comprehensive understanding of its definition, implications, objectives, and operational methodologies. The article, part of the "In Their Own Words" series by the China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI), translates Chinese source documents to illuminate Beijing's evolving perspectives. It acknowledges that legal contests have historically occurred across military, commercial, and cultural domains, but their explicit designation as "legal warfare" underscores their heightened importance in modern conflict, demanding meticulous application of relevant laws by all levels of military personnel.

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America and Israel against Iran: Strategic results during the ceasefire

Clingendael  |  Hamidreza Azizi and Erwin van Veen

In April 2026, the strategic outcomes of the US and Israeli assault on Iran during an initial ceasefire revealed Iran's unexpected resilience and accurate warfighting assumptions, contrasting sharply with US/Israeli overconfidence in a rapid victory. Tehran successfully imposed significant costs on the United States by targeting Gulf states and effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, which impacted global energy prices and US domestic politics, ultimately forcing a ceasefire. The article details how US and Israeli actions, including a failed special forces raid near Esfahan and extensive attacks on civilian infrastructure, failed to achieve Iran's surrender or collapse, instead leading to a more radical and assertive Iranian leadership. Ceasefire negotiations faced immediate challenges due to Israel's large-scale attack on Beirut, which Iran countered by maintaining the Hormuz closure until a broader ceasefire, including Lebanon, was secured. Despite absorbing an estimated USD 270 billion in damages and suffering 1,700 civilian deaths, Iran's strategic position remains strong, compelling the US to agree to the initial ceasefire.

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The Ties That Bind: Energy Connectivity in the Age of Geopolitical Turbulence - International Centre for

International Centre for Defence and Security

Europe's energy system is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by geopolitics, security concerns, and climate objectives. The EU has adopted a dual strategy to strengthen internal connectivity while deliberately reducing exposure to high-risk external dependencies, particularly on Russia, fundamentally reshaping post-2022 energy policy. Despite reframing renewable energy as a foundation for industrial strategy and geopolitical resilience, Europe’s grids remain underdeveloped, threatening EU credibility across climate, competitiveness, and security. The pursuit of energy independence through REPowerEU has advanced unevenly, with the EU remaining a significant buyer of Russian LNG and pipeline gas. Regional dynamics highlight tensions between independence and connectivity, exemplified by the Nordic-Baltic states' success versus Hungary and Slovakia's "malignant connectivity." Undersea infrastructure represents a critical vulnerability, susceptible to disruption due to physical exposure and weak legal protection. The report recommends strengthening regional connectivity, capacity coordination, and infrastructure protection, including closing legal gaps on undersea assets and tightening sanctions against Russia, alongside national-level actions like recognizing Finland as an anchor partner and integrating hybrid threats into energy planning.

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PRISM, Spring 2026, v. 11, no. 2

 PRISM, Spring 2026, v. 11, no. 2

When States Go Rogue: Criminal Tools in Hybrid Warfare
Agriculture as a Domain of Hybrid Warfare: China’s Strategy and U.S. Security Gaps
Understanding Cognitive Warfare: Beyond Information
Medical Intelligence in Support of Irregular Warfare
Strategic Culture – A Complex Model for a Complex Concept
Maskirovka and the Olympics: The Russian Choice to Initiate Conflict During the Olympic Games
Soft Power by Design: China’s United Front Strategy for Taiwan’s Civil Society in the Age of Irregular Warfare
Countering Hostile Chinese Lawfare: An Irregular Warfare-Based Approach
From Saguntum to Taipei: The Hazards of Strategic Ambiguity
Mapping the BRICS Plus Cryptocurrency Ecosystem: Is the BRICS Plus Bloc Effectively Using Cryptocurrency to Avoid Sanctions?
Equity Chain Mapping: Adapting Counter Threat Finance for Great Power Competition
Shadow Strategy: Air and Space Power in the Gray War
Controlling Command: Is AI Capturing the Ethics of War?
Preparing for Future Wars: Incongruent Beliefs on Autonomous Weapons
Warfare in the Technology Arena: Cost-Imposition and Maneuver in the Electromagnetic Battlespace

Could the Third Gulf War Become World War III?

RealClearDefense  |  Gedaliah Afterman & Roie Yellinek

The ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran is increasingly viewed as a global confrontation rather than a self-contained Middle Eastern conflict, intersecting with the Russia-Ukraine war and broader great-power rivalry. Ukraine is sharing drone interception expertise with Gulf states, while Russia provides geolocation intelligence to Iran, and China offers economic backing. This emerging alignment suggests a dangerous shift towards bloc politics, where regional conflicts fuse into a wider systemic confrontation. Moscow leverages the Middle East crisis to erode Western cohesion, exploiting growing U.S. strategic burdens and NATO disputes. Initial miscalculations about a swift victory, mirroring errors in the 2022 Ukraine invasion, failed to account for the enemy's agency and adaptability. China, balancing its Gulf energy dependence with domestic economic pressures, seeks to enhance its regional relevance post-conflict, adopting a restrained neutrality. The confluence of the Strait of Hormuz's closure, the Ukraine war, and potential Taiwan tensions indicates this regional dispute is unfolding within a much broader global context of great-power competition and strategic chokepoints.

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5 Ways Iran Is Exploiting AI in Warfare

Foundation for Defense of Democracies  |  Leah Siskind

The Islamic Republic of Iran has emerged as a leading adopter of artificial intelligence (AI) for warfare, deception, and repression, employing a coherent five-pronged strategy that the United States is currently unprepared to counter. Iran weaponizes AI to enhance cyber operations against American targets, utilizing large language models for social engineering and developing novel malware, thereby reducing the time, talent, and language barriers for simultaneous attacks. Furthermore, Iran is integrating Russian AI advancements to make its Shahed-136 drones more lethal, particularly through AI-generated flight plans to evade air defenses. Tehran has also bombed American AI data centers in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, recognizing AI's foundational role in America's wartime advantage. Finally, Iran leverages AI-generated propaganda, including deepfakes, to manipulate war narratives globally.

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United States Cyber Force: A Defense Imperative

Foundation for Defense of Democracies  |  Dr. Erica Lonergan and RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery

The U.S. military's current cyber force generation system is critically flawed, failing to recruit, train, promote, and retain talented cyber warriors effectively. Each service—Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines—operates independent, uncoordinated systems, leading to a severe shortage of qualified personnel at U.S. Cyber Command (CYBERCOM). This inefficiency results in officers without keyboard experience commanding cyber units and inconsistent skill acquisition among trainees. Based on over 75 interviews with military officers, the study reveals low retention rates due to inconsistent policies and institutional cultures that undervalue cyber expertise. Resolving these issues necessitates establishing a new, independent U.S. Cyber Force, mirroring the historical creation of the Air Force and Space Force. Such a force would standardize recruitment, training, promotion, and retention, establish dedicated cyber education institutions, and prioritize rapid acquisition of cyber warfare systems, initially comprising approximately 10,000 personnel. This approach is deemed superior to alternatives like making CYBERCOM a SOCOM-like entity or having it assume force generation, which would break precedent and overwhelm its leadership.

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Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism? An Assessment

International Centre for Counter-Terrorism  |  Marc Sommers, Mai Nasrallah

The field of Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (P/CVE) is critically assessed for its efficacy against violent extremist organizations (VEOs), particularly given the persistent failure of traditional 'hard power' counter-terrorism (CT) approaches to halt VEO expansion globally since the September 11, 2001 attacks. P/CVE, introduced as a 'soft-side complement' to CT two decades ago, now faces scrutiny regarding its appropriate international response to resilient VEOs that exploit local frustrations and government weaknesses. This report addresses two pressing questions: what constitutes an effective P/CVE strategy on the international stage, and how can limited resources be optimally invested, especially following funding reductions from key governments like the US and UK? Analysis acknowledges significant constraints, including unstable security environments, the influence of host governments, and the inherent difficulty in evaluating P/CVE program success in preventing or countering VEO activities.

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How Much More Power Can the U.S. Grid Provide for AI? Projections and Policy Implications for 2030

RAND

The United States' electricity grid is projected to add approximately 82 gigawatts (GW) of net available capacity by 2030, comprising 33 GW from front-of-the-meter (FTM) resources and 49 GW from behind-the-meter (BTM) resources, according to RAND research. This assessment accounts for project completion rates, retirements, and resource reliability, translating planned additions into reliable capacity estimates. The anticipated growth in electricity demand from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers is substantial, rapid, and geographically concentrated, posing significant challenges to grid adequacy. While most FTM additions are concentrated in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), BTM capacity is more evenly distributed, playing a crucial role in reducing peak grid demand. Policymakers must prioritize locational adequacy, especially in regions with limited net capacity additions, and incorporate realistic project assessments and diversified resource portfolios to manage the uncertainty of future large-load growth. Further research is needed to refine estimates by including transmission expansion scenarios and more granular locational data.

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Interactive Tour: Russian and TV BRICS

StoryMaps ArcGIS  |  Nataliya Bugayova, Kateryna Stepanenko, Jacob Spencer, Kristofers Krumins, Sofia Walsh, and Tetiana Trach

Russia's cognitive warfare infrastructure is extensively detailed through an interactive map showcasing its cooperation agreements with foreign media outlets. The Kremlin actively cultivates a global network of foreign media, content creators, and journalists by forming partnerships, conducting outreach, and fostering media education. This initiative aims to expand Russia's media conglomerate, as further examined in a comprehensive ISW report. The interactive tool provides a visual representation of these strategic agreements. Technical guidance is included for users to ensure optimal map functionality, addressing browser compatibility issues and recommending hardware acceleration. For additional insights, ISW can be followed on Twitter @TheStudyofWar, and media inquiries can be directed to press@understandingwar.org. This analysis is a collaborative effort by multiple experts from the Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project.

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Ontological Foundations of Cognitive Warfare

CCDCOE

This study introduces a structure-centric conceptualization of cognitive warfare, shifting analytical focus from observable effects, actors, and technological instruments to the systemic conditions of cognitive vulnerability. Central to this approach are systemic invariants—epistemic, axiological, identificatory, social, and teleological structures—that sustain the coherence, identity, and adaptive capacity of complex socio-technical systems. Cognitive warfare is redefined as the deliberate targeting of these systemic invariants by exploiting inter-layer linkages within a system's multiplex architecture, with the strategic aim of inducing cognitive decoherence. Decoherence represents a structurally conditioned and potentially irreversible erosion of cognitive sovereignty, whereby a system loses its capacity for coherent perception and analysis of reality, development, adaptation, and self-protection as an integrated cognitive order. This multiplex perspective enables the differentiation of vulnerability logics, offering practical implications for developing tailored cognitive protection strategies and establishing a foundation for diagnosing systemic vulnerabilities and advancing proactive strategies for cognitive resilience.

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The Strait of Hormuz Under Pressure: Asymmetric Naval War and Signs of Elite Fragmentation in Iran

Hudson Institute  |  Can Kasapoğlu

The Strait of Hormuz is experiencing heightened geopolitical pressure, primarily driven by Iran's evolving asymmetric naval warfare doctrine and discernible signs of elite fragmentation within its leadership. Iran's strategic posture in this critical maritime chokepoint relies heavily on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) and the conventional Navy (IRIN), which are increasingly employing swarming tactics, fast attack craft, and sophisticated anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities. These tactics aim to challenge the naval superiority of external powers and project regional influence, creating a volatile operational environment. Concurrently, internal political fissures and potential power struggles among Iran's ruling elite could lead to more erratic and aggressive foreign policy decisions, further destabilizing the region. The confluence of these external military challenges and internal political dynamics poses a significant threat to global energy security and international maritime commerce. This situation underscores the urgent need for international stakeholders to develop comprehensive strategies for de-escalation, deterrence, and safeguarding freedom of navigation through this vital waterway.

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From Ballistics to Cruise: Türkiye’s Missile Developments

IISS  |  Sıtkı Egeli, Arda Mevlütoğlu

Türkiye has significantly advanced its missile capabilities, driven by regional threats and a strategic imperative for defense-industrial autonomy. Historically reliant on NATO, Ankara shifted its posture after the Iran–Iraq and Gulf Wars, recognizing vulnerabilities to missile attacks and the limitations of Alliance arrangements. This led to a twin-track approach: importing systems while building an indigenous design and manufacturing base, notably under Roketsan and TUBITAK SAGE. Türkiye acceded to the Missile Technology Control Regime in 1997, yet pursued longer-range ballistic options, with presidential backing for missiles exceeding 800 km and even 2,000 km. Its cruise-missile program, initially shelved, restarted in 2013, bolstered by domestic engine development and adaptable for various platforms, including uncrewed systems. The Russia–Ukraine war and Iran–Israel exchanges underscore the operational value of precision weapons. Türkiye's investment in a Somali spaceport for long-range testing highlights its commitment to further ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic R&D, transforming its guided-weapons sector.

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Hybrid times: War and peace in military innovation studies

DOI | Emilie Berthelsen

Military innovation studies traditionally differentiate between organizational change occurring in peace and war, a dualistic approach limiting understanding in the contemporary security environment. Persistent competition, "grey zone" conflicts, and an eroding distinction between war and peace necessitate a re-evaluation of these embedded theoretical assumptions. Grissom’s four schools of military innovation—civil-military relations, inter-service politics, intra-service politics, and organizational culture—alongside a fifth school focused on bottom-up, wartime adaptation, are systematically reviewed. Common context-dependent assumptions about change emerge, often portraying it as either strategic, top-down, and episodic during peacetime, or emergent, bottom-up, and continuous during conflict. A shift from this contrasting dualistic conceptualization towards a complementary duality-based understanding acknowledges the synergistic interplay of stability and change mechanisms across the entire conflict continuum. This offers a more nuanced framework for studying how military organizations innovate and adapt in an era demanding dynamic stability.

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When and How Will the War in Ukraine End?

RealClearDefense  |  Pavlo Kuliuk

Current political meetings regarding the war in Ukraine are not genuine peace negotiations, which are inherently secret, but rather political maneuvering. The original U.S.-mediated peace plan between the EU and Russia failed due to European non-recognition of U.S. mediation. This led the U.S. to direct talks with Russia, weakening Europe and prolonging the conflict. The article posits that the wars in Ukraine and the Persian Gulf are interconnected, with the U.S. strategically using Russia against the EU and Iran against Gulf states, primarily targeting European influence. Ukraine is portrayed as a territory occupied by European and Russian forces since 2014. The war's resolution hinges on Ukraine's complete transfer to either Russian or European control, or the restoration of independence. Given Europe's reluctance to offer concessions and Russia's battlefield dominance in depleting Ukrainian "Euro-collaborators," the author concludes that Ukraine will likely fall entirely under Russian control through military victory, not negotiation. Widespread draft evasion by Ukrainian men is cited as a factor contributing to Russia's strategic advantage.

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