Clayton Seigle
After more than three weeks of open warfare, Iran effectively controls the Persian Gulf. The country’s two-pronged attack against gulf commercial shipping and critical infrastructure has cut off roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, leaving only Iranian oil to make it out.
President Trump last week responded by removing sanctions from some of the oil flowing out of Iran, in an effort to ease high petroleum prices. If the money from selling that oil gets back to Tehran, the president’s move will be deeply counterproductive. Instead, he should order a blockade of Iranian oil. To negotiate an end to the crisis from a position of strength, the Trump administration should flip the script on Iran, depriving it of revenue unless the regime restores security in the gulf.
The key to securing — or blockading — gulf energy exports is not at the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that connects the gulf with global markets. Even if the United States fully secures the strait for commercial traffic, Iran will retain the firepower and range to continue striking ships and the facilities that load those ships throughout the region. Securing the strait would impose no pressure on Iran to ease up, because the country would continue exporting oil.
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