Alex Lewis Richter
The 2025 China Military Power Report, published by the U.S. Department of Defense, assessed that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) employs several large phased array radar stations and space-based infrared satellites to detect incoming intercontinental ballistic missiles and enable a counterstrike before an adversary’s nuclear first strike can detonate (Department of Defense [DoD], December 23, 2025). As with U.S.–Soviet experiences with false alarms during the Cold War, the PRC’s developing early warning counterstrike posture increases the opportunity for nuclear escalation through false signals, technical malfunctions, and misinterpretation of data under time-sensitive conditions.
To mitigate false alarms, the United States military employs “dual phenomenology” requirements in which two different information sources must confirm an incoming ballistic missile before launching a retaliatory strike. The United States depends primarily on space-based infrared satellites and radar installations for these purposes. Through the construction of large phased array radar systems and space-based infrared satellites, the PRC has also built the capacity to maintain dual phenomenology requirements before launching a retaliatory nuclear strike (Ta Kung Pao, January 27, 2025; DoD, December 23).
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