Daniel Fu
The notion that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) remains excessively dependent on foreign energy imports has gained continued traction in Western policy discourse. Some analysts argue that U.S. military action against Iran would significantly undermine the PRC’s energy security, while others suggest that a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Malacca could serve as a credible instrument of military and economic deterrence against Beijing. Chinese scholars and policy experts largely perceive no such vulnerabilities. Few believe that any blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could be sustained over the medium, let alone long term, and many argue that the so-called “Malacca dilemma” (马六甲困境) has largely faded amid the PRC’s diversification of energy sources and rapid expansion of domestic energy capacity.
Even so, the PRC’s reliance on foreign energy remains substantial. According to World Bank data, China imported roughly 30 percent of its total energy consumption as of 2023, while the United States was a net energy exporter (World Bank, March 25, 2025). This structural dependence constitutes a real strategic vulnerability and helps explain Beijing’s sustained focus on energy security.
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