Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists | Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, Mackenzie Knight-Boyle
Russia's nuclear modernization program, despite being in its late stages, is experiencing significant delays and technical challenges, impacting the deployment of newer systems. As of March 2026, Russia possesses an estimated 4,400 nuclear warheads for strategic and non-strategic forces, a slight increase from the previous year, with approximately 1,796 strategic warheads deployed. This modernization is driven by a desire for parity with the United States, national prestige, and to offset perceived conventional force inferiority and US missile defense threats. The recent successful test of the Sarmat ICBM on May 12, 2026, follows years of setbacks. Russia's use of dual-capable precision weapons in Ukraine, some de-nuclearized, raises concerns about its nuclear strategy and intentions, contributing to increased defense spending and nuclear modernization efforts in other nations. The expiration of the New START treaty in February 2026, and the US rejection of Russia's offer to voluntarily adhere to its limits, significantly reduces transparency regarding Russia's nuclear force structure, making future open-source estimations more challenging.
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