Council on Foreign Relations | Chris McGuire
Artificial intelligence (AI) policy will be the most important issue in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, driven by exponentially advancing capabilities, doubling every four months since 2024, leading to models 250 times more powerful by 2028. These advancements will cause significant job losses, as warned by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, and create potential for dangerous misuse, including advanced hacking and biological engineering. AI also enables comprehensive government surveillance without warrants. The U.S. military is already using AI in Iran operations, compressing target identification to seconds, and future conflicts will see fully autonomous combat drones, making U.S. AI leadership critical against China. Public sentiment is largely negative, with only 26 percent of voters having positive feelings. This necessitates a proactive federal policy addressing safe development, equitable economic gains through workforce programs and income support, and maintaining U.S. global AI leadership over China via robust technology protection measures. Deferring serious policymaking risks a reactive, crisis-driven response detrimental to both public safety and U.S. competitiveness.
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