Mykola Bielieskov
Another bloody campaign is expected in the ongoing Ukraine–Russia conflict. However, the efficiency of Russia’s current battlefield military strategy seems to have plateaued. If nothing changes radically in Russia’s approach to force constitution and application, the Kremlin cannot expect progress on the battlefield in 2026 to radically strengthen its negotiation position. It is critical to highlight this, given the ongoing contest for perception among wider audiences.
As 2026 unfolds, the Ukraine–Russia war still revolves around Russian attempts to fully capture the Donetsk region, anchor its front around the Oskil River and advance as far as possible into the Zaporizhia region. While Russia has held the battlefield initiative since mid-autumn 2023, it has proved unable to orchestrate a rapid breakthrough. In 2025, Russia tried to build a picture of omnipotence through attempts to advance on all fronts to strengthen its negotiation position. As a result, while Russia occupied almost 5000 km2, it barely managed to push Ukraine out of Pokrovsk-Myrnograd, and while it exploited Ukrainian shortcomings around Hulyaipole and Syversk to score some local successes, it could not break Ukraine’s will to fight.
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