Center for Strategic and International Studies | Nikita Shah
China has systematically evolved its cyber capabilities over the past 15 years, establishing itself as a peer competitor to the United States in cyberspace, surpassing other adversaries. Utilizing a "whole-of-society" approach, China demonstrates sophistication in targeting and persistence, deeply penetrating U.S. critical infrastructure and public sector systems, including the U.S. Treasury and military installations. Campaigns like Salt Typhoon and Volt Typhoon highlight advanced technical capabilities, potentially leveraging large language models for precise targeting and even developing scalable AI tooling superior to U.S. counterparts, such as a version of Mythos Preview. The scale of China's talent pipeline, cultivated through competitions, universities, and research institutes, feeds hundreds of thousands into state institutions like the MSS and PLA. This is amplified by a private sector compelled to supply zero-day vulnerabilities, creating an agile offensive cyber supply chain. China's stealthy tactics, including targeting edge devices, living-off-the-land techniques, cloud environment exploitation, and widespread use of covert networks, make attribution and defense challenging. Strategically, China's clear intent, anchored in plans like "Made in China 2025" and its 15th Five-Year Plan, contrasts with perceived U.S. strategic ambiguity. The article suggests the U.S. must seize the post-Trump Beijing visit window to reinvigorate its cyber strategy, reverse agency cuts, and publish an implementation plan to re-establish superiority, moving beyond failed deterrence models.
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