19 January 2026

Taiwan’s Probable Risk Scenario Shifts to Potential Blitzkrieg

Jens Kastner

Although the bulk of Taiwan observers wargaming Beijing’s takeover of Taiwan tend to see a naval blockade choking it into negotiations for annexation as the most probable course, the latest developments in Latin America are raising the odds for a more violent approach even though Chinese success is not certain, a survey and online research by Asia Sentinel suggests.

The US’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3 triggered a flood of commentary on Chinese social media calling for the China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to replicate the same kind of military operation against what officials regard as a renegade province and arrest the political leadership to quickly solve Beijing’s self-perceived Taiwan problem.

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