The Greenland Crisis Won’t Break NATO: But It Could Weaken It Where It Matters Most

Andrew Latham

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Greenland is unlikely to fracture NATO as an institution, but it could weaken what matters most: deterrence credibility. If Washington applies visible pressure on Denmark over access, basing, or authority—especially in a way that looks coercive inside the alliance—partners may begin to treat collective defense as politically conditional rather than automatic. That shift wouldn’t announce itself through treaty drama; it would appear in quiet hedging: slower planning timelines, more reassurance-seeking, more cautious signaling, and greater hesitation in crisis decision-making

Greenland Won’t Break NATO, But It Could Make Article 5 Feel Conditional

NATO will not fracture over Greenland. Framing this issue as an existential showdown is misguided. The Alliance is too entrenched to unravel over one disagreement—even one connected to Arctic strategy and territorial sovereignty. The real danger lies elsewhere and is easy to miss.