Lucie Béraud-Sudreau
On 5 March, Premier Li Qiang delivered his government work report at the opening session of the National People’s Congress (NPC). The speech contained economic growth targets for 2026, including for 4.5% real-terms growth in GDP, the slowest since 1991.
This more modest economic objective is unsurprising in the light of the current headwinds in the Chinese economy. As highlighted in recent IISS Charting China analysis, the government is grappling with weak consumer confidence, high urban unemployment and a falling property market. The goal also aligns with the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections. The IMF’s January 2026 forecasts indicated an estimated 4.5% GDP growth in 2026, followed by a slowdown to 4% in 2027.
The central bank’s governor, Pan Gongsheng, and Minister of Finance Lan Foan reportedly indicated in 2025 that China would require an annual growth rate of at least 4.17% over the next decade to become a medium-level developed country in terms of GDP per capita by 2035. GDP targets are therefore unlikely to dip significantly below 4.5% in the near term.
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