31 March 2026

Israel’s Lebanese Campaign Will Backfire

Shira Efron

Israel began planning its operation in Lebanon months ago when it became apparent that since the November 2024 cease-fire, Hezbollah had not depleted its rocket and missile arsenal, that it had rebuilt its command structure and restored its ability to fight and that, despite promises, the Lebanese government had not fully disarmed the terrorist group. On March 2, after Hezbollah joined the Iranian counterattack and fired at the Galilee, Israel seized the opportunity to go on the offensive.

It’s widely agreed that action against Hezbollah — an internationally recognized terrorist group and a Shiite Muslim political party in Lebanon’s multisectarian society — is necessary. However, a prolonged Israeli military operation, the destruction of state infrastructure and a wider presence in southern Lebanon, as Israeli officials now propose, could further undermine weak Lebanese institutions, turn the country’s people against Israel and further entrench Hezbollah’s resistance narrative. That’s precisely the opposite of what Israel and the region need.

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