31 March 2026

When the war is interested in you

Karl Pfefferkorn

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier may not be interested in the war with Iran, but that war is certainly interested in Germany. The oil and gas it desperately needs flows through the Straits of Hormuz, which can be secured only by the US Navy. The ballistic missile attack on Diego Garcia shows Iran’s strategic reach now encompasses Berlin, Rome and Warsaw. The nightmare scenario under which an economically weak Iran could blackmail the mighty European Union is forestalled only by the layered ballistic missile defense constructed at great cost by the United States, which includes satellites, ground based radars, and interceptors both ashore and on US ships based in Rota, Spain (hello Pedro Sanchez, and welcome to the party!). The two-stage rockets fired by Iran are clearly sized for use with an atomic weapon, should the current campaign fail to end the nuclear ambitions of the Islamic Republic.

Rather than express gratitude for American defence against this alarming new Iranian capability, Steinmeier parroted Germany’s traditional faith in international law and the moribund Joint Consultative Plan of Action negotiated by President Obama. That this deal would have ended all restrictions on uranium enrichment a full year ago, and never placed any limits on Iran’s ballistic missile programmes troubles Steinmeier not at all. Apparently words on paper have a magical power far superior to the tawdry complexities of missile defence. The possibility that the inadequacies of the JCPOA encouraged rather than hindered the covert development of hostile capabilities is a notion beyond the sentimental yearnings of the German President.

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