Dr. Muqtedar Khan
Given the overwhelming military superiority that Israel and the United States can bring to bear against an already sanctioned and weakened Iran, the achievement of their immediate tactical objectives appears highly likely. Nuclear facilities can be destroyed, missile stockpiles reduced, senior commanders eliminated, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) degraded. The targeted killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sends an unmistakable signal that the military advantage rests overwhelmingly with the United States and Israel.
Yet it is equally possible that Khamenei’s death could backfire – not by strengthening the regime but by uniting Iranians around a sense of national sovereignty. In moments of external attack, societies often rally around the flag rather than rise against their governments. The desired public uprising against the regime may therefore not materialize.
But decapitation is not an end in itself. By eliminating the leadership, the U.S. and Israel appear to be operating on the assumption that elite fragmentation will follow. Fragmentation, in turn, would generate internal contestation. Out of that contestation – and with external encouragement – a more compliant set of leaders might emerge.
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