Nick Reynolds and Dr Jack Watling
With the UK and US military facing potential numerical disadvantages in future conflicts, this Research Paper explores how lethality – defined as the rate at which a force inflicts damage relative to the casualties it incurs – can be used as a metric to guide force development and ensure operational success. Lethality should be understood as the output of combat power, or an attempt to predict effect rather than inputs to operations.
Adopt a multi-metric approach to measuring lethality: Avoid oversimplified, aggregated metrics that obscure critical dependencies. Instead, measure lethality using four distinct metrics: overmatch, potential, endurance and efficiency. Develop an overmatch matrix: Map out enemy systems and align British Army capabilities to evaluate the proportion of the enemy that is overmatched or held at risk.
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