Morgan Michaels
Myanmar’s military, known as the Tatmadaw, has once again initiated a transition away from direct junta rule to a hybrid system in which it attempts to exercise power via a quasi-civilian proxy government. As history shows, however, elections and parliamentary politics are likely to produce dynamics and outcomes that the Tatmadaw cannot fully control. Rather than offering a secure path towards regime consolidation, the transition and Min Aung Hlaing’s recent ascension to the presidency have exposed the Tatmadaw to considerable risk.
The ongoing transition began with tightly controlled elections held in phases between December 2025 and January 2026, in which the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), led by retired officers, won by a landslide. This same outcome marked the beginning of the 2010 transition, when limited elections also led to the USDP’s sweeping victory. The Tatmadaw’s pivot back towards limited political transition is motivated by two objectives.
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