Foreign Affairs | Henrietta Levin
The United States, under a hypothetical Trump administration in 2025-2026, has significantly lost its strategic leverage over China, culminating in Beijing gaining an effective veto over critical U.S. national security measures. Following a 2025 trade war initiated by the U.S. and reciprocated by China, Beijing's strategic move to block rare-earth element exports compelled Washington to seek an off-ramp, validating China's assumption of superior negotiating power. This shift in dynamics led to a deal where the U.S. withdrew a new regulation on export controls for sanctioned entities' subsidiaries and agreed to forgo new export controls specifically targeting Chinese entities. These concessions, reinforced by anticipated meetings between President Trump and President Xi, are projected to embolden Beijing to test American resolve on sensitive issues like Taiwan and the protection of cutting-edge technology, thereby complicating Washington’s ability to maintain bilateral stability and cementing China’s long-term strategic advantage.
No comments:
Post a Comment